014
FXUS21 KWNC 081839
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 08 2024
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED TO SUPPORT THE
FORMATION OF A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS PATTERN
COMBINED WITH ENHANCED MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASES THE CHANCES
FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND POSSIBLE FLOODING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY THESE
STORMS MAY BRING HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH WINDS TO
THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TUE-WED, APR 16-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, TUE-THU, APR 16-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODIC HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, TUE-FRI, APR 16-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES,
TUE-WED, APR 16-17.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS, EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA, AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY APRIL 11 - MONDAY APRIL 15:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY APRIL 16 - MONDAY APRIL 22: THERE IS MULTI-MODEL DEPICTION OF
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD, WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SERIES OF SURFACE
LOWS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECENS, TRANSLATING TO SURFACE LOWS THAT WOULD BE STRONGER
AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST COAST, IS ANTICIPATED TO PROMOTE ENHANCED MOISTURE
FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS HIGHLIGHTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO VALLEYS, AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, APR 16-19. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DESIGNATED RISK
AREA, WHICH WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS LOCALLY. A BROAD SPATIAL
AREA AND PERIOD IS HIGHLIGHTED DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS ANTICIPATED TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE GEFS, ECENS,
AND CANADIAN PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND ONE INCH. A POSSIBLE FLOOD RISK AREA IS
DESIGNATED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS, EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, AND
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
DURING WEEK-1 AND EXPECTED HEAVY PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK-2, WHERE THERE ARE
SOME STATIONS ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOOD CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES, APR 16-17, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
SUPPORTING HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS HIGH ELEVATION AREAS. THE GEFS PET SHOWS
AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVING 3-DAY SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT (SWE) TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND HALF AN INCH, AND THE
UNCALIBRATED ECENS ENSEMBLE INDICATING TOTALS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES IN MUCH OF THE
HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA.
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA
HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS,
APR 16-18. PETS SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH (ECENS SHOWS GREATER THAN 25 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS) ACROSS MUCH OF THE RISK AREA. A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH
WINDS IS DESIGNATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDDLE AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, APR 16-17, PRIMARILY BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION OF WHERE
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD WOULD BE BASED ON THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. HIGH WINDS
COULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR WILDFIRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND FOUR CORNERS,
ESPECIALLY WHERE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED DURING WEEKS 1 AND 2.
THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER (NIFC) INDICATES THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR WILDFIRES FOR DAY 7 ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FOUR
CORNERS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ACROSS ALASKA, THE WEEK-2 MEAN PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO BE DOMINATED BY POSITIVE
500 HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. SURFACE LOW FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DURING WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH NOT ANTICIPATED TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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