881
FXUS21 KWNC 081909
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 08 2024
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED TO SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A SERIES OF
SURFACE LOWS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS PATTERN COMBINED WITH ENHANCED MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF OF
MEXICO INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY THESE
STORMS MAY
BRING HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH WINDS TO THE CENTRAL
CONUS.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TUE-WED, APR 16-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, TUE-THU, APR 16-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODIC HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, TUE-FRI, APR 16-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES,
TUE-WED, APR 16-17.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS, EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA, AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY APRIL 11 - MONDAY APRIL 15:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY APRIL 16 - MONDAY APRIL 22: THERE IS MULTI-MODEL DEPICTION OF
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SERIES OF
SURFACE LOWS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECENS, TRANSLATING TO SURFACE LOWS THAT WOULD BE STRONGER
AND MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS
THE EAST COAST, IS ANTICIPATED TO PROMOTE ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO
INTO PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK
OF PERIODS
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER
MISSISSIPPI, OHIO VALLEYS, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, APR 16-19. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN
THE DESIGNATED RISK AREA, WHICH WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
LOCALLY. A
BROAD SPATIAL AREA AND PERIOD IS HIGHLIGHTED DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS ANTICIPATED TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE GEFS, ECENS,
AND CANADIAN
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AT LEAST A
20% CHANCE
OF 3-DAY RAINFALL EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND ONE INCH.
A POSSIBLE
FLOOD RISK AREA IS DESIGNATED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS, EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA, AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED
DURING WEEK-1 AND EXPECTED HEAVY PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK-2, WHERE THERE ARE
SOME
STATIONS ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOOD CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES, APR
16-17, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTING HEAVY
UPSLOPE SNOW
ACROSS HIGH ELEVATION AREAS. THE GEFS PET SHOWS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF SOME
OF THESE
AREAS RECEIVING 3-DAY SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE AND
HALF AN INCH, AND THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS ENSEMBLE INDICATING TOTALS EXCEEDING 4
INCHES IN
MUCH OF THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA.
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA
HIGHLIGHTED WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, APR 16-18. PETS
SHOW AT LEAST
A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH (ECENS
SHOWS GREATER
THAN 25 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS) ACROSS MUCH OF THE
RISK AREA. A
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS DESIGNATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS
AND MIDDLE
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, APR 16-17, PRIMARILY BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION
OF WHERE
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD WOULD BE BASED ON THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. HIGH WINDS
COULD
ENHANCE THE RISK FOR WILDFIRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND FOUR CORNERS,
ESPECIALLY WHERE
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED DURING WEEKS 1 AND 2. THE NATIONAL
INTERAGENCY
FIRE CENTER (NIFC) INDICATES THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES FOR DAY 7
ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
ACROSS ALASKA, THE WEEK-2 MEAN PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO BE DOMINATED BY POSITIVE
500 HPA
HEIGHT DEPARTURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. SURFACE LOW FORMATION IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA DURING WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH NOT ANTICIPATED TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
HAZARDS AT
THIS TIME.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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