730  
FXUS21 KWNC 082032  
PMDTHR  
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EDT APRIL 08 2024  
 
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS  
U.S. (CONUS) AT THE  
 
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED TO SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A SERIES OF  
SURFACE LOWS  
 
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS PATTERN COMBINED WITH ENHANCED MOIST FLOW FROM THE  
GULF OF  
 
MEXICO INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHERN  
 
PLAINS, MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND POSSIBLE  
FLOODING  
 
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY THESE  
STORMS MAY  
 
BRING HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH WINDS TO THE CENTRAL  
CONUS.  
 
HAZARDS  
 
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDDLE AND  
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TUE-WED, APR 16-17.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, TUE-THU, APR 16-18.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODIC HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, TUE-FRI, APR 16-19.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES,  
TUE-WED, APR 16-17.  
 
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS, EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN  
OKLAHOMA, AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
 
DETAILED SUMMARY  
 
FOR THURSDAY APRIL 11 - MONDAY APRIL 15:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
FOR TUESDAY APRIL 16 - MONDAY APRIL 22: THERE IS MULTI-MODEL DEPICTION OF  
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF  
THE PERIOD, WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SERIES OF SURFACE  
LOWS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE MORE  
AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECENS, TRANSLATING TO SURFACE LOWS THAT WOULD BE STRONGER  
AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.  
 
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST COAST, IS ANTICIPATED TO PROMOTE ENHANCED MOISTURE  
FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING  
OF THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS HIGHLIGHTED  
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO VALLEYS, AND  
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, APR 16-19. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DESIGNATED RISK  
AREA, WHICH WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS LOCALLY. A BROAD SPATIAL  
AREA AND PERIOD IS HIGHLIGHTED DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SPECIFIC  
LOCATIONS ANTICIPATED TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE GEFS, ECENS,  
AND CANADIAN PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT  
INDICATING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL EXCEEDING THE 85TH  
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND ONE INCH. A POSSIBLE FLOOD RISK AREA IS  
DESIGNATED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS, EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, AND  
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED  
DURING WEEK-1 AND EXPECTED HEAVY PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK-2, WHERE THERE ARE  
SOME STATIONS ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOOD CONDITIONS.  
 
UPSTREAM, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
ROCKIES, APR 16-17, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS  
SUPPORTING HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS HIGH ELEVATION AREAS. THE GEFS PET SHOWS  
AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVING 3-DAY SNOW WATER  
EQUIVALENT (SWE) TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND HALF AN INCH, AND THE  
UNCALIBRATED ECENS ENSEMBLE INDICATING TOTALS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES IN MUCH OF THE  
HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA.  
 
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA  
HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS,  
APR 16-18. PETS SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH  
PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH (ECENS SHOWS GREATER THAN 25 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS) ACROSS MUCH OF THE RISK AREA. A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH  
WINDS IS DESIGNATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDDLE AND UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, APR 16-17, PRIMARILY BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION OF WHERE  
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD WOULD BE BASED ON THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. HIGH WINDS  
COULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR WILDFIRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND FOUR CORNERS,  
ESPECIALLY WHERE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED DURING WEEKS 1 AND 2.  
THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER (NIFC) INDICATES THE GREATEST POTENTIAL  
FOR WILDFIRES FOR DAY 7 ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FOUR  
CORNERS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
 
ACROSS ALASKA, THE WEEK-2 MEAN PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO BE DOMINATED BY POSITIVE  
500 HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. SURFACE LOW FORMATION IS  
POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DURING WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH NOT ANTICIPATED TO  
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.  
 
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU  
 

 
 
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