012
FXUS21 KWNC 211839
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 21 2024
SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING HEAT
RELIEF TO TEXAS. HOWEVER, A CONTINUED RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF MAY. A FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
FROM MAY 30 TO JUNE 1. THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THE NORTHEAST ON MAY 29 AND 30 AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THIS
REGION.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA,
WED-THU, MAY 29-30.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA,
WED-FRI, MAY 29-31.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEAST, WED-THU, MAY 29-30.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS, THU-SAT, MAY 30-JUN 1.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY MAY 24 - TUESDAY MAY 28:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY MAY 29 - TUESDAY JUNE 04: MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT AND
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR LATE MAY SHIFTS WELL
TO THE SOUTH TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND GULF COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF
WEEK-2, MAY 29TH. THIS COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO END THE EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND YESTERDAY’S SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT
IS DISCONTINUED FOR TEXAS. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT IS
MAINTAINED FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF
MAY. ANY MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS REGION IS FORECAST TO BE SLOWER
AND THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
OF NEAR 95 DEGREES F. SINCE THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS IS SHOWING NEAR OR
RECORD HIGHS FOR MIAMI THROUGH MAY 30TH AND BASED ON THE GEFS PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOL (PET) DEPICTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVING A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE, A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT IS
POSTED ON MAY 29 AND 30. BY THE BEGINNING OF JUNE, AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO EASE THE HEAT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE COLD FRONT, WHICH BRINGS HEAT RELIEF, IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE
NORTH AND MAY BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE WEST AND THE UNCALIBRATED ECMWF
MODEL PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH HAVE INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY FROM
KANSAS SOUTH TO TEXAS WHICH SUPPORTS THE CONTINUATION OF THE SLIGHT RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION. BASED ON 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GEFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS, THE VALID PERIOD IS MAY 30 TO JUNE 1. GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR AND WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE DESIGNATED AREA, THERE IS A
FLASH FLOODING RISK WITH ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHEAST NEXT
WEEK WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED ON MAY 29 AND 30.
THIS HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAZARD IS SUPPORTED MOSTLY BY THE UNCALIBRATED ECMWF
MODEL PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH ITS PET.
ALTHOUGH THE PREDICTED LONGWAVE PATTERN WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENTS FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, THESE AREAS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A HIGH WIND POTENTIAL AS WILDFIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED HEADING INTO WEEK-2.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) DURING THE REMAINDER OF MAY
INTO EARLY JUNE EXISTS FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF FLORIDA AND TEXAS. THE ROD HAZARDS
ARE BASED ON 30 TO 60-DAY PRECIPITATION DEFICITS, LOW SOIL MOISTURE, AND
CONTINUED DRYNESS AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE BEGINNING OF JUNE.
THESE ROD AREAS WILL BE REASSESSED ON THURSDAY, MAY 23.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
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