640
FXUS21 KWNC 041807
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JUNE 04 2024
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) IS PREDICTED TO LINGER FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE WEEK-2, SHIFTING
EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY THE LATTER HALF OF WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASED CHANCES FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST AND INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS EARLY IN WEEK-2, WITH TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED TO MODERATE THEREAFTER. INTENSIFICATION OF A THERMAL LOW OVER THE
SONORAN DESERT WITH MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INCREASES
CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS FROM THE MIDDLE TO END OF WEEK-2 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND HIGH PLAINS. POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW FORMATION
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF
FLORIDA.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA,
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, AND SOUTHWEST, WED-THU, JUN 12-13.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS MANY PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS, WED-FRI, JUN 12-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND HIGH
PLAINS, FRI-TUE, JUN 14-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA, WED-FRI, JUN 12-14.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY JUNE 07 - TUESDAY JUNE 11:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 12 - TUESDAY JUNE 18: MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST
LINGERING FROM WEEK-1 INTO WEEK-2 IS PREDICTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD, WEAKENING
WITH TIME. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ACROSS MULTIPLE ENSEMBLE MEANS REGARDING
THE STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE, TRANSLATING TO HIGHER OUTLOOK
CONFIDENCE FOR THE FAVORED HEAT SIGNALS. THE GEFS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL
(PET) SHOWS INCREASED CHANCES (40-60%) OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE
85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD, WITH THE ECENS CONTINUING TO SHOW HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR THE REGION.
THE MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE MORE
OF THE FOUR CORNERS, COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, FOR JUNE 12-13. THE AREA OF SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT (20-40% CHANCE) HIGHLIGHTED HAS FAIRLY SIMILAR COVERAGE
TO YESTERDAY, FOR JUNE 12-14. THE BIAS CORRECTED ECENS HEAT TOOL SHOWS SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN HAVING HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS,
ALTHOUGH THE GEFS DOES NOT. BOTH TOOLS SHOW THE GREATEST VALUES (EXCEEDING 105
DEG F) FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA, DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND TEXAS. THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) SHOWS POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, IDAHO, AND TEXAS JUNE 12-13.
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SONORAN DESERT WITH
ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS IN ADDITION TO SURFACE
LOWS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST. A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS HAS
BEEN EXPANDED IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK FOR THE INTERIOR WEST AND HIGH PLAINS, JUNE
14-18, BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND TOOLS. THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS INDICATE AT
LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH IN
THE DESIGNATED RISK AREA. ANTICIPATED HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY
INCREASE WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ESPECIALLY WHERE THE NATIONAL
INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER (NIFC) SHOWS MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE
POTENTIAL BY THE END OF WEEK-1.
OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS, PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OVER THE PAST 30- AND 60-DAYS, HIGH
RATES OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (ET), AND THE CONTINUED FORECAST OF HIGH HEAT AND
SUBNORMAL PRECIPITATION SUPPORTS POSSIBLE RAPID ONSET DROUGHT FOR THE REGION.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS COMBINED WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW FORMATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AT THE
BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ACROSS MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEANS SHOWING AT LEAST 0.75 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. GIVEN THIS INCREASED SIGNAL IN THE UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE
AS WELL AS INCREASED PROBABILITIES IN THE PETS, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS DESIGNATED FOR JUNE 12-14 ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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