934
FXUS21 KWNC 051811
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JUNE 05 2024
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE PREDICTED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST IS PREDICTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT WEEK-2, WEAKENING WITH TIME. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS
LINGERING HEAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST COAST BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL HIGH, SUPPORTING
SURFACE LOW FORMATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST AND ACCOMPANYING INCREASED RISK
FOR EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND HIGH PLAINS. POSSIBLE
SURFACE LOW FORMATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR FLORIDA.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS, THU, JUN 13.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
THU-SAT, JUN 13-15.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA, THU-FRI, JUN 13-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA, THU-SAT, JUN 13-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND HIGH
PLAINS, THU-MON, JUN 13-17.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SATURDAY JUNE 08 - WEDNESDAY JUNE 12:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR THURSDAY JUNE 13 - WEDNESDAY JUNE 19: MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS PREDICTED TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST BY THE START OF WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS MULTIPLE MODEL
ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE ECENS AND CMCE FEATURE MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO NORTHERN PLAINS,
WHEREAS THE GEFS FAVORS A WEAKER, BROADER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF
THE COUNTRY. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES, MODEL TOOLS FAVOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR
LINGERING HEAT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT IS
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (20-40% CHANCE)
CONFINED TO THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, JUNE 13-15, AND A MODERATE
RISK (40-60% CHANCE) SCOPED TO PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS, JUNE 13. THE GEFS
AND ECENS HEAT TOOLS INDICATE HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AND TRIPLE DIGITS DEG F (105 DEG F ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS). THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS FOR JUNE 13.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST BEHIND THE EASTWARD SHIFTING RIDGE
SUPPORTS SURFACE LOW FORMATION OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MAY SUPPORT AREAS OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND HIGH
PLAINS, JUNE 13-17. THE GEFS AND ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS)
INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND
20 MPH IN THE DESIGNATED RISK AREA. ANTICIPATED HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS
MAY INCREASE WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ESPECIALLY WHERE THE NATIONAL
INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER (NIFC) SHOWS MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE
POTENTIAL BY THE END OF WEEK-1.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ANTICIPATED OVER THE EAST COAST FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO
THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 COMBINED WITH SURFACE LOW FORMATION OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
FLORIDA, JUNE 13-15. MULTIPLE MODEL PETS SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH. AN EMBEDDED
MODERATE RISK AREA IS DESIGNATED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA, JUNE 13-14, BASED ON
WHERE THE ECENS PET SHOWS AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THESE THRESHOLDS.
THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS ENSEMBLE INDICATES AT LEAST A 40% CHANCE OF 3-DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES, FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE UNCALIBRATED DAILY
GEFS SHOWING DAILY TOTALS EXCEEDING 0.75 TO ONE INCH.
OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS, PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OVER THE PAST 30- AND 60-DAYS, HIGH
RATES OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (ET), AND THE CONTINUED FORECAST OF HIGH HEAT AND
SUBNORMAL PRECIPITATION SUPPORTS POSSIBLE RAPID ONSET DROUGHT FOR THE REGION.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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