307
FXUS21 KWNC 061855
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JUNE 06 2024
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.
REGARDLESS OF THIS UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS INCREASED CHANCES FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD BEHIND THE RIDGE, SUPPORTING SURFACE
LOW FORMATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST AND ACCOMPANYING INCREASED RISK FOR
EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND HIGH PLAINS. A POSSIBLE
LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO WEEK-2 IN ADDITION TO
POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW FORMATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASES THE CHANCES
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FOR FLORIDA.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST, FRI-SUN, JUN 14-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA, FRI-SAT, JUN 14-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND HIGH
PLAINS, FRI-MON, JUN 14-17.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY JUNE 09 - THURSDAY JUNE 13:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY JUNE 14 - THURSDAY JUNE 20: MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS PREDICTED TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE ONSET OF WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS MULTIPLE MODEL
ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION FAVORS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN, WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY, WHEREAS THE
GEFS AND CANADIAN COUNTERPARTS KEEP THE RIDGE FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF WEEK-2. DESPITE HIGH MODEL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN, THERE IS STILL RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SLIGHT RISK (20-40% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE HEAT IS POSTED
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST, JUNE 14-16. THE PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 95 DEG F ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND 90 DEG F ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, WITH MID 90S DEG F ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST BEHIND THE EASTWARD SHIFTING RIDGE
SUPPORTS SURFACE LOW FORMATION OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MAY SUPPORT AREAS OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND HIGH
PLAINS, JUNE 14-17. THE GEFS AND ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS)
INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND
20 MPH IN THE DESIGNATED RISK AREA. ANTICIPATED HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS
MAY INCREASE WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ESPECIALLY WHERE THE NATIONAL
INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER (NIFC) SHOWS MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE
POTENTIAL BY THE END OF WEEK-1.
A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE BEGINNING OF
WEEK-2, IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE SURFACE LOWS FORMING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO,
CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR FLORIDA, JUNE 14-15.
MULTIPLE MODEL PETS SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA.
DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO WEEK-2, A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS NOT INCLUDED IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK.
OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS, PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OVER THE PAST 30- AND 60-DAYS, HIGH
RATES OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (ET), AND THE CONTINUED FORECAST OF HIGH HEAT AND
SUBNORMAL PRECIPITATION SUPPORTS POSSIBLE RAPID ONSET DROUGHT FOR THE REGION.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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