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FXUS21 KWNC 071750
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JUNE 07 2024
SYNOPSIS: THE MEAN WEEK-2 MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO BE DOMINATED BY
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. AND LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS INCREASED CHANCES OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST DURING
WEEK-2. THE POTENTIAL FOR A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO WEEK-2 COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW FORMATION
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASES CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
GULF COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST MAY SUPPORT EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGH PLAINS AT THE
BEGINNING OF WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST, SAT-FRI, JUN 15-21.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND HIGH
PLAINS, SAT-MON, JUN 15-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER AND MIDDLE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SAT-MON, JUN
15-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST,
SAT-WED, JUN 15-19.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY JUNE 10 - FRIDAY JUNE 14:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY JUNE 15 - FRIDAY JUNE 21: MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS PREDICTED ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2, WITH TROUGHING UPSTREAM. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, WITH THE ECENS
AND CMCE ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVORING BROADER RIDGING LINGERING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE ONSET OF WEEK-2, WHEREAS THE GEFS HAS A
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH RIDGING FOCUSED MORE EASTWARD. BY DAY 10 (JUNE 17),
MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING
IS PREDICTED TO GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE LOWER 48
THEREAFTER.
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGHOUT
WEEK-2. THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES
TOOLS (PETS) INDICATING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE
85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY IN THE DESIGNATED RISK AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES
MAY EXCEED TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE VALUES MAY EXCEED THE
MID 90S DEG F ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) SHOWS
POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR
EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING WEEK-2, ESPECIALLY AS
THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE TO DESIGNATE AN ADDITIONAL
AREA OF RISK AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.
A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER AND MIDDLE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
JUNE 15-17, WHICH MAY BE A FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST. THE ECENS AND CMCE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH,
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY UNCALIBRATED MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND RESULTANT FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME GAUGES EXPERIENCING MINOR
TO MODERATE FLOODING.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST BEHIND THE EASTWARD SHIFTING RIDGE
SUPPORTS SURFACE LOW FORMATION OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MAY SUPPORT AREAS OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND HIGH
PLAINS, JUNE 15-17. THE GEFS AND ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS)
INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND
20 MPH IN THE DESIGNATED RISK AREA. ANTICIPATED HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS
MAY INCREASE WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ESPECIALLY WHERE THE NATIONAL
INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER (NIFC) SHOWS MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE
POTENTIAL BY THE END OF WEEK-1.
A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO WEEK-2, IN ADDITION TO
POSSIBLE SURFACE LOWS FORMING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO, SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF
PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST, JUNE 15-19.
MULTIPLE MODEL PETS SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA.
ANTICIPATED ENHANCED PRECIPITATION COULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE NATIONAL WATER
CENTER (NWC) INDICATES POSSIBLE FLOODING DURING WEEK-1.
OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS, PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OVER THE PAST 30- AND 60-DAYS, HIGH
RATES OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (ET), AND THE CONTINUED FORECAST OF HIGH HEAT AND
SUBNORMAL PRECIPITATION SUPPORTS POSSIBLE RAPID ONSET DROUGHT FOR THE REGION.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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