840
FXUS21 KWNC 171945
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JUNE 17 2024
SYNOPSIS: A BRIEF RESPITE FROM EXCESSIVE HEAT IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN LOWER 48 STATES DURING THE EARLY PART OF WEEK-2, AS SEVERAL AREAS OF
MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PROGRESS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. TOWARDS THE END OF WEEK-2,
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS FAVORED TO RETURN TO THE OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES,
NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST
REGION, TUE-SAT, JUN 25-29.
FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA, AND FLORIDA,
TUE-SAT, JUN 25-29.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, TUE-THU, JUN 25-27.
FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR UTAH, TUE-THU, JUN 25-27.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, TUE-MON, JUN 25-JUL 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, SAT-MON, JUN 29-JUL 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION, TUE-THU, JUN 25-27.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTERIOR CAROLINAS.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY JUNE 20 - MONDAY JUNE 24:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY JUNE 25 - MONDAY JULY 01: ONE OR TWO COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED
HUMIDITY. THE BREAK FROM THE HEAT, HOWEVER, IS FAVORED TO BE SHORT-LIVED, AS
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST
LATE IN WEEK-2, WITH A RETURN TO HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THE THREE ENSEMBLE
MEAN MODEL FORECASTS (GEFS, ECENS, AND CANADIAN (CMCE)) SUPPORT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE
EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FARTHER SOUTH, WHERE LITTLE TO NO RELIEF OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
ANTICIPATED, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR THE EASTERN SOUTHERN
PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, TUE-MON, JUN
25-JUL 1. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT IS ALSO INDICATED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF UTAH, WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
90’S TO NEAR 100 DEG F, FOR THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. A STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY IN WEEK-2, GRADUALLY REDUCING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE WEST.
FOR PRECIPITATION, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, JUN 25-27. PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE
FROM THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS, AND THE
UNCALIBRATED ECENS, ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS AREA OF FAVORED HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
THE PET TOOL HAS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE
85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE, AND AT LEAST 1-INCH OF RAIN OVER A 3-DAY
PERIOD. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF THIS AREA, AS PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN OCCURRING FREQUENTLY, AND SOIL MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN HIGH. FARTHER SOUTH,
A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGION, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, JUN
25-29. THERE IS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE
85TH PERCENTILE, AND AT LEAST ONE INCH OF RAIN ANTICIPATED OVER THIS REGION. AS
MUCH AS 1.5-2.0 INCHES OF RAIN ARE FAVORED OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, WHERE A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
POSTED, JUN 25-29. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THIS REGION, IN LARGE PART DUE
TO THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EARLIER WEEK-1 PERIOD.
TWO AREAS OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) ARE HIGHLIGHTED ON TODAY’S HAZARDS MAP.
ONE AREA INCLUDES MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND INTERIOR CAROLINAS, AND
THE OTHER AREA INCLUDES MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MUCH OF THESE AREAS HAVE
BELOW-NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE VALUES, AND ARE EXPERIENCING 1-4 INCH 30-DAY
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS AT THIS TIME. THE EXPECTATION OF HIGH HEAT AND HIGH
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (ET) RATES FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS MAKE THIS REGION VULNERABLE
TO RAPID ONSET DROUGHT.
THE VARIOUS PET TOOLS AGREE ON HIGH WINDS (20-25 MPH) ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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