527
FXUS21 KWNC 021758
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT AUGUST 02 2024
SYNOPSIS: A TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR CUBA OR SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON ITS TRACK LATER NEXT WEEK,
BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENTIAL TC COULD
LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH AUGUST 10 AND 11. ADDITIONAL TCS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING MID-AUGUST. THE SOUTHWEST
IS FORECAST TO BE VULNERABLE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
THROUGH AUGUST 13. A BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST WITH AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE HEAT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ALONG THE EAST COAST, SAT-SUN, AUG 10-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE EAST, SAT-SUN, AUG 10-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY, MON-WED,
AUG 12-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF COLORADO, NEW MEXICO, AND
ARIZONA, SAT-TUE, AUG 10-13.
FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF COLORADO, NEW MEXICO, AND ARIZONA.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S., SAT-FRI, AUG
10-16.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK FOR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY AUGUST 05 - FRIDAY AUGUST 09:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY AUGUST 10 - FRIDAY AUGUST 16: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)
IS MONITORING A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE OVER EASTERN CUBA AND FORECASTS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM ONCE IT MOVES OVER OPEN WATER. DUE TO LARGE MODEL
ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON THE
STRENGTH, TRACK, AND IMPACTS OF THIS POTENTIAL TC HEADING INTO EARLY WEEK-2.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS AND BROADER
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND ON AUGUST 10 AND 11. AN ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD TO AFRICA BY MID-AUGUST, WHICH IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE
LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
BASIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AROUND AUGUST 11 AND TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM AUGUST 12
TO 14.
A PAIR OF TROPICAL CYCLONES (TCS) ARE FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE EAST
PACIFIC PRIOR TO WEEK-2. THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE ONE OF THESE TCS PROVIDE
A MOISTURE SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND
FOUR CORNERS REGION. DUE TO THIS PREDICTED ENHANCED LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TRIGGERING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO, AND COLORADO
FROM AUGUST 10 TO 13. UPSLOPE FLOW, LEADING INTO WEEK-2, IS LIKELY TO FURTHER
INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THE FLASH
FLOODING RISK WILL BE HIGHEST IN BURN SCAR AREAS.
A BROAD 500-HPA RIDGE OF MODERATE STRENGTH FOR EARLY TO MID-AUGUST IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF WEEK-2. BASED ON ITS STRENGTH AND THE CALIBRATED HEAT INDEX TOOL
DEPICTING A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF HEAT INDEX VALUES TO EXCEED THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AND 105 DEGREES F, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT IS POSTED FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. FROM AUG 10-16. ALTHOUGH ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS.
A RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) RISK IS POSTED FOR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS DUE TO: INCREASING 14 TO 30-DAY PRECIPITATION DEFICITS,
DECLINING SOIL MOISTURE, AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION RATES DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS OR MORE. THE WEEK-2
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ONLY SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND THE
NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETELY DRY. ALTHOUGH DROUGHT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS EARLY IN AUGUST, THE ROD RISK
FROM LAST WEEK WAS DISCONTINUED SINCE A 2-CATEGORY DEGRADATION IN THE U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE PREDICTED COOLER, WETTER PATTERN
FORECAST DURING WEEK-2.
AN ANOMALOUS 500-HPA TROUGH FAVORED OVER THE BERING SEA IS LIKELY TO PROMOTE
ENHANCED, ONSHORE FLOW WITH INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FOR MAINLAND ALASKA. THE GEFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH AMPLITUDE AND
ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW HAZARD THRESHOLDS, NO ASSOCIATED HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAZARD IS POSTED.
NEAR JUNEAU, LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE GLACIAL
OUTBURST FLOOD FOR THE MENDENHALL RIVER.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
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