902
FXUS21 KWNC 141824
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT AUGUST 14 2024
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION DURING WEEK-2, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF EXCESSIVE HEAT TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SONORAN DESERT.
MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EAST IS ANTICIPATED TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO WEEK-2, SUPPORTING INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS, GEORGIA, AND FLORIDA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NEW
MEXICO, THU-MON, AUG 22-26.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SONORAN DESERT, THU-WED, AUG 22-28.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS, GEORGIA, AND
FLORIDA, THU-FRI, AUG 22-23.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SATURDAY AUGUST 17 - WEDNESDAY AUGUST 21:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR THURSDAY AUGUST 22 - WEDNESDAY AUGUST 28: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS
FAVOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS DURING WEEK-2, TRANSLATING TO A SHIFT IN THE FOCUS OF THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT RISK. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT IS DESIGNATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NEW MEXICO, AUG 22-26, WHERE THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES
TOOLS (PETS) SHOW 40-60% CHANCES OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ANTICIPATED TO EXCEED
TRIPLE DIGITS (DEG F). THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ACROSS TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
DURING THE HIGHLIGHTED MODERATE RISK PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ON AUG 22. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS MAY REACH 105 DEG F. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK IS
HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SONORAN
DESERT THROUGHOUT WEEK-2, WHERE TOOLS HAVE A 20-40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING
HAZARDOUS CRITERIA. THE GEFS PET CONTINUES TO SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 95 DEG F ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, WITH THE ECENS COUNTERPART
HAVING DECREASING PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING THESE THRESHOLDS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF HAZARDOUS HEAT BEING FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED
AND DECREASING HEAT SIGNALS IN SOME MODELS, AN ASSOCIATED HEAT HAZARD IS NOT
DESIGNATED AT THIS TIME.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STATIONARY FRONT
TO LINGER FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO WEEK-2 WHICH COULD SUPPORT ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST COAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
DESIGNATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS, GEORGIA, AND FLORIDA, AUG 22-23,
WHERE THE PETS SHOW AT LEAST A 20% OF 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS (AUG 22-24) NEARING
OR EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
IN THESE AREAS DUE TO LINGERING SATURATED SOILS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH A 30% CHANCE OF FORMING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THERE IS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS, WITH THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FAVORING THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS REGION. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO DESIGNATE AN ASSOCIATED HAZARD BUT WILL BE MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.
BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING WEEK-2, COMBINED WITH INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND BELOW-NORMAL 30-DAY ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION, RESULTS IN AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTED BY DECLINING SOIL MOISTURE VALUES
AND DRY CONDITIONS FAVORED OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS PREDICTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE WEST COAST TO
INTERIOR ALASKA DURING WEEK-2, SUPPORTING INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN TIER. CONDITIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA DURING THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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