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FXUS21 KWNC 011800
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 01 2024
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), CONTRIBUTING TO A LINGERING INCREASED RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE HEAT FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE ONSET OF WEEK-2 OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS MAY LEAD TO AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 AND COULD EXACERBATE FLOOD CONDITIONS IN THE REGION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING ENHANCED WIND AND RAINFALL TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD BUT ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH HAZARDOUS
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WED, OCT 9.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., WED-FRI,
OCT 9-11.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA, TEXAS, WESTERN
ARKANSAS, AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 04 - TUESDAY OCTOBER 08:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 09 - TUESDAY OCTOBER 15: MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS IS PREDICTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO AND
THROUGHOUT WEEK-2, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT IS MAINTAINED FOR THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, OCT 9, WHERE THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) SHOW AT
LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND 105 DEG F, WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES FOR A NUMBER OF LOCALIZED
AREAS. MULTIPLE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR EXCESSIVE
HEAT THEREAFTER AS POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT DEPARTURES SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE ANOMALOUSLY WARM ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, VALUES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA.
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL DEPICTION OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
DURING WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN, COMBINED WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)
INDICATING AT LEAST A 40% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO, AS OF 8AM EDT, SUPPORTS A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE
HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA IS SLIGHTLY REDUCED IN SPATIAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, PRIMARILY BASED ON THE ECENS PET, WHERE THERE IS AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH. THE
ECENS PET INDICATES THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING THESE THRESHOLDS
(AT LEAST A 40% CHANCE) OVER FLORIDA. THE GEFS PET LIMITS THE 1 INCH TOTALS TO
PRIMARILY COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST, WITH 0.75 INCH TOTALS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA. A RISK OF POTENTIAL FLOODING IS HIGHLIGHTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO SATURATED SOILS, ANTICIPATED WEEK-1 AND WEEK-2
PRECIPITATION, AND MULTIPLE GAUGES ALREADY IN CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MINOR TO
MAJOR FLOODING.
THE RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) AREA REMAINS POSTED IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND WESTERN ARAKANSAS AND LOUISIANA BASED ON 30-DAY
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS, LOW SOIL MOISTURE, AND LITTLE PREDICTED RAINFALL DURING
THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FUTURE TROPICAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKS, THE ROD REGION HAS BEEN KEPT AWAY FROM THE TEXAS COAST.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF ALASKA, SUPPORTING SURFACE LOW
FORMATION OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT COULD SUPPORT ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND
WIND SPEEDS, EXTENDING FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND.
THE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE
85TH PERCENTILE AND 2 INCHES, WITH THE ECENS PET SHOWING SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
EXCEEDING 3 INCHES. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERED ANOMALOUSLY WET, PREDICTED THRESHOLDS
DO NOT REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA PRECLUDING ASSOCIATED HAZARDS FROM BEING
HIGHLIGHTED AT THIS TIME. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM
WOULD LIKELY BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2 (OCT 11-13).
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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