793   
FXUS21 KWNC 011811  
PMDTHR  
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 01 2024  
  
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF   
THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), CONTRIBUTING TO A  LINGERING INCREASED RISK FOR   
EXCESSIVE HEAT FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE ONSET OF WEEK-2 OVER THE DESERT   
SOUTHWEST. MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL   
CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS MAY LEAD TO AN   
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.   
AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 AND COULD EXACERBATE FLOOD CONDITIONS IN THE REGION.   
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING ENHANCED WIND AND RAINFALL TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN   
ALASKA DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD BUT ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH HAZARDOUS   
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.  
  
HAZARDS  
  
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WED, OCT 9.  
  
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., WED-FRI,   
OCT 9-11.  
  
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  
  
RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA, TEXAS, WESTERN   
ARKANSAS, AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.  
  
DETAILED SUMMARY  
  
FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 04 - TUESDAY OCTOBER 08:   
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
  
FOR WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 09 - TUESDAY OCTOBER 15: MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE   
WESTERN CONUS IS PREDICTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO AND   
THROUGHOUT WEEK-2, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN   
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT IS MAINTAINED FOR THE   
DESERT SOUTHWEST, OCT 9, WHERE THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) SHOW AT   
LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE   
CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND 105 DEG F, WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) SHOWING   
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES FOR A NUMBER OF LOCALIZED   
AREAS. MULTIPLE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR EXCESSIVE   
HEAT THEREAFTER AS POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT DEPARTURES SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO   
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE   
ANTICIPATED TO BE ANOMALOUSLY WARM ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, VALUES ARE   
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA.  
  
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL DEPICTION OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS   
DURING WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN, COMBINED WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)   
INDICATING AT LEAST A 40% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 7   
DAYS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO, AS OF 2PM EDT,   
SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.   
THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA IS SLIGHTLY REDUCED IN SPATIAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO   
YESTERDAY, PRIMARILY BASED ON THE ECENS PET, WHERE THERE IS AT LEAST A 20%   
CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH. THE   
ECENS PET INDICATES THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING THESE THRESHOLDS   
(AT LEAST A 40% CHANCE) OVER FLORIDA. THE GEFS PET LIMITS THE 1 INCH TOTALS TO   
PRIMARILY COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST, WITH 0.75 INCH TOTALS ACROSS THE REST   
OF THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA. A RISK OF POTENTIAL FLOODING IS HIGHLIGHTED   
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO SATURATED SOILS, ANTICIPATED WEEK-1 AND WEEK-2   
PRECIPITATION, AND MULTIPLE GAUGES ALREADY IN CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MINOR TO   
MAJOR FLOODING.  
  
THE RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) AREA REMAINS POSTED  IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK OVER THE   
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND WESTERN ARAKANSAS AND LOUISIANA BASED ON 30-DAY   
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS, LOW SOIL MOISTURE, AND LITTLE PREDICTED RAINFALL DURING   
THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FUTURE TROPICAL STORM   
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKS, THE ROD REGION HAS BEEN KEPT AWAY FROM THE TEXAS COAST.  
  
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF ALASKA, SUPPORTING SURFACE LOW   
FORMATION OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT COULD SUPPORT ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND   
WIND SPEEDS, EXTENDING FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND.   
THE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE   
85TH PERCENTILE AND 2 INCHES, WITH THE ECENS PET SHOWING SOME LOCALIZED AREAS   
EXCEEDING 3 INCHES. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERED ANOMALOUSLY WET, PREDICTED THRESHOLDS   
DO NOT REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA PRECLUDING ASSOCIATED HAZARDS FROM BEING   
HIGHLIGHTED AT THIS TIME. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM   
WOULD LIKELY BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2 (OCT 11-13).  
  
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU   
  
  
 
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