484
FXUS21 KWNC 021837
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 02 2024
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA. MID-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS MAY SUPPORT LINGERING INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA AT THE
BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 AND COULD EXACERBATE FLOOD CONDITIONS IN THE REGION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING ENHANCED WIND AND RAINFALL TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD BUT ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH HAZARDOUS
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA, THU-FRI,
OCT 10-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN, THU-MON, OCT 10-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST,
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AND APPALACHIANS, THU-MON, OCT 10-14.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA.
RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA, TEXAS, WESTERN
ARKANSAS, AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SATURDAY OCTOBER 05 - WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 09:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR THURSDAY OCTOBER 10 - WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 16: THERE IS MULTI-MODEL DEPICTION
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN,
COMBINED WITH SURFACE LOWS LINGERING FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO WEEK-2 OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FLORIDA,
SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA,
OCT 10-11. THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA IS REDUCED IN SPATIAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, PRIMARILY BASED ON THE ECENS PET, WHERE THERE IS AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH. THE
GEFS PET LIMITS THE 1 INCH TOTALS TO PRIMARILY EASTERN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA, WITH 0.75 INCH TOTALS ACROSS THE REST OF THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA. A
RISK OF POTENTIAL FLOODING IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO ANTICIPATED
WEEK-1 AND WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION, AND MULTIPLE GAUGES CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
MINOR TO MAJOR FLOODING.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ANTICIPATED FROM WEEK-1 THROUGH
WEEK-2 IS PREDICTED TO BRING ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO PARTS OF THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THIS TRANSITION TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE EAST IS
SUPPORTED BY INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE NAO VALUES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2.
ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT
INCREASED NIGHTTIME RADIATIVE COOLING AND DECREASED TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT RISK
OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST, EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, AND APPALACHIANS, OCT 10-14, WHERE THE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A
20% CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE LOWEST 20TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND 40 DEG F (BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST).
THE RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) AREA REMAINS POSTED IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA BASED ON 30-DAY
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS, LOW SOIL MOISTURE, AND LITTLE PREDICTED RAINFALL DURING
THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FUTURE TROPICAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKS, THE ROD REGION HAS BEEN KEPT AWAY FROM THE TEXAS COAST.
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL DEPICTION OF A THERMAL LOW SETTING UP OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
INTO THE SOUTHWEST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE EASTERN FOUR
CORNERS DURING WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN MAY SUPPORT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS
SUPPORTING A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, OCT 10-14. THIS THERMAL LOW MAY ALSO SUPPORT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, SUPPORTING
LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME TO DESIGNATE SPECIFIC ASSOCIATED AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF ALASKA, SUPPORTING SURFACE LOW
FORMATION OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT COULD SUPPORT ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND
WIND SPEEDS, EXTENDING FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND.
THE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE
85TH PERCENTILE AND 2 INCHES, WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH CONSIDERED ANOMALOUSLY WET, PREDICTED THRESHOLDS DO NOT REACH
HAZARDOUS CRITERIA PRECLUDING ASSOCIATED HAZARDS FROM BEING HIGHLIGHTED AT THIS
TIME. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WOULD LIKELY BE DURING
THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2 (OCT 11-13).
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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