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FXUS21 KWNC 031819
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 03 2024
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA. MID-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS MAY BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF
TEMPERATURE FALLING BELOW 40 DEG F ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS (BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND). SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING ENHANCED WIND AND RAINFALL TO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. SURFACE LOWS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN PLAINS MAY BRING PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS TO PARTS
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THE RISK OF RAPID
ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN, FRI-SUN, OCT 11-13.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST,
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AND APPALACHIANS, FRI-SUN, OCT 11-13.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA, FRI-SUN, OCT 11-13.
RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY OCTOBER 06 - THURSDAY OCTOBER 10:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 11 - THURSDAY OCTOBER 17: MULTIPLE ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LESS
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN THE TIME RANGE FOR THE HIGHLIGHTED MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE RISK. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND APPALACHIANS,
OCT 11-13, WHERE THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) INDICATE AT LEAST A
20% CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE LOWEST 20TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND 40 DEG F (BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST). THE
MIDWESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER (MRCC) INDICATES SUSCEPTIBLE VEGETATION IN
THE APPALACHIANS WHERE THE DESIGNATED RISK AREA IS.
THE RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) AREA IS EXPANDED TO COVER PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BASED ON ANTICIPATED ANOMALOUSLY WARM
TEMPERATURES DURING WEEK-2, 30-DAY PRECIPITATION DEFICITS, LOW SOIL MOISTURE,
AND LITTLE PREDICTED RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FORMATION OF A THERMAL LOW SETTING UP OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COMBINED WITH ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE EASTERN FOUR
CORNERS DURING WEEK-2 THERE IS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WEST. A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS IS
SLIGHTLY EXPANDED IN SPATIAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY’S OUTLOOK TO
INCLUDE PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST, OCT 11-13. THIS THERMAL LOW MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
SUPPORTING LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THERE IS TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO DESIGNATE SPECIFIC ASSOCIATED AREAS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.
A STATIONARY FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA FROM THE END OF WEEK-1
INTO THE ONSET OF WEEK-2 WHICH MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED RAINFALL. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA DURING WEEK-2 AND COULD
PROLONG FLOODING OVER SOME AREAS OF FLORIDA. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THUS A RISK AREA IS NOT SPECIFIED.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS PREDICTED TO BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC DURING WEEK-2, SUPPORTING A STORMY PATTERN IMPACTING PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA. INCREASED SIGNALS IN DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE, AND TOOL
GUIDANCE OF MULTIPLE MODELS SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER
PARTS OF THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA, OCT 11-13.
THE ECENS PET SHOWS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING
THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY, AND 3 INCHES FOR PARTS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED
RISK AREA. RECENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF
PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING AT LEAST 4 INCHES IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD IN THIS
REGION. ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALASKA, ALTHOUGH THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER HAZARDOUS CRITERIA
WILL BE EXCEEDED AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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