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FXUS21 KWNC 031819  
PMDTHR  
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 03 2024  
  
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF   
THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE   
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA. MID-LEVEL   
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS MAY BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF   
TEMPERATURE FALLING BELOW 40 DEG F ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS (BELOW FREEZING ACROSS   
NEW ENGLAND). SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING ENHANCED WIND AND RAINFALL TO   
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. SURFACE LOWS OVER THE   
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN PLAINS MAY BRING PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS TO PARTS   
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THE RISK OF RAPID   
ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
  
HAZARDS  
  
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL   
GREAT BASIN, FRI-SUN, OCT 11-13.  
  
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST,   
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,   
AND APPALACHIANS, FRI-SUN, OCT 11-13.  
  
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND   
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA, FRI-SUN, OCT 11-13.  
  
RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
  
DETAILED SUMMARY  
  
FOR SUNDAY OCTOBER 06 - THURSDAY OCTOBER 10:   
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
  
FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 11 - THURSDAY OCTOBER 17: MULTIPLE ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LESS   
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS COMPARED TO   
YESTERDAY, RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN THE TIME RANGE FOR THE HIGHLIGHTED MUCH   
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE RISK. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES   
IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, EASTERN GREAT LAKES   
REGION, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND APPALACHIANS,   
OCT 11-13, WHERE THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) INDICATE AT LEAST A   
20% CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE LOWEST 20TH PERCENTILE   
CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND 40 DEG F (BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST). THE   
MIDWESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER (MRCC) INDICATES SUSCEPTIBLE VEGETATION IN   
THE APPALACHIANS WHERE THE DESIGNATED RISK AREA IS.  
  
THE RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) AREA IS EXPANDED TO COVER PARTS OF THE GREAT   
PLAINS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BASED ON ANTICIPATED ANOMALOUSLY WARM   
TEMPERATURES DURING WEEK-2, 30-DAY PRECIPITATION DEFICITS, LOW SOIL MOISTURE,   
AND LITTLE PREDICTED RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.  
  
MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FORMATION OF A THERMAL LOW SETTING UP OVER   
BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.   
COMBINED WITH ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE EASTERN FOUR   
CORNERS DURING WEEK-2 THERE IS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS   
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WEST. A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS IS   
SLIGHTLY EXPANDED IN SPATIAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY’S OUTLOOK TO   
INCLUDE PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST, OCT 11-13. THIS THERMAL LOW MAY   
ALSO SUPPORT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,   
SUPPORTING LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THERE IS TOO   
MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO DESIGNATE SPECIFIC ASSOCIATED AREAS OF HEAVY   
PRECIPITATION.  
  
A STATIONARY FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA FROM THE END OF WEEK-1   
INTO THE ONSET OF WEEK-2 WHICH MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED RAINFALL. PRECIPITATION   
TOTALS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA DURING WEEK-2 AND COULD   
PROLONG FLOODING OVER SOME AREAS OF FLORIDA. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY   
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THUS A RISK AREA IS NOT SPECIFIED.  
  
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS PREDICTED TO BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE   
NORTHEAST PACIFIC DURING WEEK-2, SUPPORTING A STORMY PATTERN IMPACTING PARTS OF   
SOUTHERN ALASKA. INCREASED SIGNALS IN DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE, AND TOOL   
GUIDANCE OF MULTIPLE MODELS SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER   
PARTS OF THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA, OCT 11-13.   
THE ECENS PET SHOWS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING   
THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY, AND 3 INCHES FOR PARTS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED   
RISK AREA. RECENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF   
PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING AT LEAST 4 INCHES IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD IN THIS   
REGION. ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN   
ALASKA, ALTHOUGH THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER HAZARDOUS CRITERIA   
WILL BE EXCEEDED AT THIS TIME.  
  
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU   
  
  
 
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