939
FXUS21 KWNC 141750
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 14 2024
SYNOPSIS: A GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) DURING WEEK-2, WITH MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST INTO PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW MAY
BRING ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION. FLOODING
IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE MILTON REMAINS A CONCERN OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA.
CONVERSELY, RAPID ONSET DROUGHT REMAINS A RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HAZARDS
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS, NORTHERN
LOUISIANA, AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY OCTOBER 17 - MONDAY OCTOBER 21:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY OCTOBER 22 - MONDAY OCTOBER 28: ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND
ALASKA, EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 DEG F ABOVE-NORMAL POSSIBLE OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES LATE IN WEEK-1 INTO THE START OF WEEK-2. THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS LIKELY
TO DECLINE IN MAGNITUDE OVER TIME DURING WEEK-2 BUT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
ALONG THE WEST COAST, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE DIGGING SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST AT THE START OF WEEK-2. THE TROUGH MAY BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) FROM THE ECENS INDICATES STRONG CHANCES FOR
3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO EXCEED THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND AND 20-40%
CHANCES OF EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
OREGON. HOWEVER, GEFS BASED TOOLS ARE MORE SKEPTICAL OF THIS SOLUTION LEANING
TOWARDS LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND ONLY 20-30% CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS LITTLE RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TOOLS AS WELL. THEREFORE, NO
HAZARD IS POSTED BUT THIS AREA WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED.
HURRICANE MILTON MADE LANDFALL ON OCT 9 NEAR SIESTA KEY, FLORIDA LEAVING BEHIND
EXTENSIVE ONGOING FLOODING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEEK-1 AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEEK-2. THEREFORE, THE FLOODING POSSIBLE AREA REMAINS POSTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) RISK REMAINS CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
TEXAS, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THESE AREAS REMAIN FAVORED TO
HAVE NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK-2, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S DEG F SUPPORTING HIGHER
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION RATES.
IN ALASKA, MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BRING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
MUCH OF THE STATE AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL REGIONS. NO
HAZARDS ARE POSTED AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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