093
FXUS21 KWNC 151804
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 15 2024
SYNOPSIS: A GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) DURING WEEK-2, WITH MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST INTO PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW MAY
BRING ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION. FLOODING
IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE MILTON REMAINS A CONCERN OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA.
CONVERSELY, RAPID ONSET DROUGHT REMAINS A RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ALASKA, AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE IS
FORECAST THAT MAY BRING HIGH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND
THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEAS.
HAZARDS
A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WED-THU,
OCT 23-24.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS, NORTHERN
LOUISIANA, AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 18 - TUESDAY OCTOBER 22:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 23 - TUESDAY OCTOBER 29: ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS AND ALASKA, EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 DEG F ABOVE-NORMAL POSSIBLE OVER THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES LATE IN WEEK-1 INTO THE START OF WEEK-2. THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH
IS LIKELY TO DECLINE IN MAGNITUDE OVER TIME DURING WEEK-2 BUT TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
ALONG THE WEST COAST, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE DIGGING SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST AT THE START OF WEEK-2. THE TROUGH MAY BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) FROM THE ECENS INDICATES INCREASED CHANCES
FOR 3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO EXCEED THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 20-40%
CHANCES OF EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
OREGON. HOWEVER, GEFS BASED TOOLS ARE MORE SKEPTICAL OF THIS SOLUTION, LEANING
TOWARDS LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS LITTLE RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TOOLS AS WELL. THEREFORE, NO
HAZARD IS POSTED BUT THIS AREA WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED. ANY MOISTURE
THAT REACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS OR HIGH PLAINS MAY FALL AS SNOW AND
BRING AN EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL TO THE REGION, BUT AT THIS TIME, DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR HAZARDOUS.
HURRICANE MILTON MADE LANDFALL ON OCT 9 NEAR SIESTA KEY, FLORIDA LEAVING BEHIND
EXTENSIVE ONGOING FLOODING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEEK-1 AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEEK-2. THEREFORE, THE FLOODING POSSIBLE AREA REMAINS POSTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) RISK REMAINS CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
TEXAS, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THESE AREAS REMAIN FAVORED TO
HAVE NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK-2, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S DEG F SUPPORTING HIGHER
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION RATES.
IN ALASKA, MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA
BRINGING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE STATE AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL REGIONS. AN AREA OF NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE CHUKCHI
SEA. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW AND THE INTERACTION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.
NEVERTHELESS, STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK LIKELY TO BE ESTABLISHED AT THE
ONSET OF WEEK-2 ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ALASKA. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA FOR OCT 23-24.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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