753
FXUS21 KWNC 181752
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 18 2024
SYNOPSIS: A GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE PREDICTED ACROSS THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING WEEK-2, WITH MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN
EXCEPTION IS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT PRECIPITATION IS
UNLIKELY TO REACH HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS. FLOODING IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE
MILTON REMAINS A CONCERN OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA. CONVERSELY, RAPID ONSET DROUGHT
REMAINS A RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. IN ALASKA, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST LATE IN WEEK-1 AND INTO
WEEK-2 THAT MAY BRING HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA AND BERING SEA.
HAZARDS
A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, SAT, OCT
26.
A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
SAT, OCT 26.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR THE PARTS OF WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER AND ST. JOHNS RIVER IN
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS, NORTHERN
LOUISIANA, AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY OCTOBER 21 - FRIDAY OCTOBER 25:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY OCTOBER 26 - FRIDAY NOVEMBER 01: ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS, EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE ANOMALOUS
WARMTH MAY BE IN DECLINE BY THE END OF WEEK-2 BUT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IN ALASKA, THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE MEAN STORM TRACK RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE PERIOD. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF WEEK-2 AND THE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES HAVE GROWN STRONGER,
PARTICULARLY IN THE ECENS FORECAST, SINCE YESTERDAY BRINGING A DEEPER TROUGH
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS HAS SHIFTED THE MEAN STORM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH
REDUCING CHANCES FOR HIGH WINDS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND LATER IN WEEK-2.
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE TOOLS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF WEEK-1 AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF WEEK-2. THEREFORE, SLIGHT RISKS OF HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE
POSTED FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA FOR OCT 26, IN AGREEMENT WITH YESTERDAY’S
FORECAST.
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG
THE COAST AT THE START OF WEEK-2. THE TROUGH MAY BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE PETS
FROM THE ECENS AND GEFS FORECAST 20-30% CHANCES FOR 3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO EXCEED THE 85TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE TOOLS
GENERALLY FORECAST A 20-40% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REACHING 1.5
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH A 20-40% CHANCE OF 3-DAY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO REACH HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS AND IN MANY
WAYS WOULD BE BENEFICIAL TO THIS AREA, THEREFORE, NO CORRESPONDING HAZARD IS
POSTED TODAY.
HURRICANE MILTON MADE LANDFALL ON OCT 9 NEAR SIESTA KEY, FLORIDA LEAVING BEHIND
EXTENSIVE ONGOING FLOODING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEEK-1 AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEEK-2. THEREFORE, THE FLOODING POSSIBLE AREA REMAINS POSTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER. THESE
RIVERS ARE IN A REGION OF FLAT TERRAIN AND SANDY SOILS AND THIS WILL SLOW RIVER
RECESSION.
THE RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) RISK REMAINS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE 30-DAY PRECIPITATION
DEFICITS ARE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. THESE AREAS REMAIN FAVORED TO HAVE NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK-2, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S DEG F SUPPORTING HIGHER EVAPOTRANSPIRATION RATES.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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