645
FXUS21 KWNC 241829
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 24 2024
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW (HIGH) PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN (EASTERN) HALF OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) IS PREDICTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD. AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA AND
ALASKA MAINLAND IS PREDICTED TO ACCOMPANY SURFACE LOWS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
GULF OF ALASKA THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGH WINDS TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA INCLUDING SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTS OF ALASKA, FROM
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO KETCHIKAN.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN ALASKA FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EASTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD TO KETCHIKAN, FRI-TUE, NOV 1-5.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, FRI-SUN, NOV 1-3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, FRI-MON, NOV 1-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN ALASKA INCLUDING SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA, AND THE ALEUTIANS, FRI-TUE, NOV 1-5.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY OCTOBER 27 - THURSDAY OCTOBER 31:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY NOVEMBER 01 - THURSDAY NOVEMBER 07: THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATING MID-LEVEL TROUGHING (RIDGING) OVER THE
WESTERN (EASTERN) HALF OF THE CONUS DURING MUCH OF WEEK-2. THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WHICH COULD SUPPORT ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS AND PRECIPITATION DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS HIGHLIGHTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, NOV 1-3, ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE RISK AREA
HIGHLIGHTED IS PRIMARILY BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DRIER GEFS AND CMCE
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER ECENS PET. THE
ECENS PET INDICATES AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING
THE 85TH HISTORICAL PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH IN THE DESIGNATED TIME PERIOD.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ACTIVITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHICH WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THEREFORE, THE AREA OF A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS INDICATED
FOR A BROAD AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE GREAT PLAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
NOV 1-4. THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CANADIAN PETS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
WINDS SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA.
MULTIPLE ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA, AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WHICH ARE PREDICTED TO BRING AN ELEVATED RISK OF HIGH WINDS TO THE EXTENSIVE
SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA (FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE PANHANDLE). THE PETS SHOW
AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 40 MPH.
HIGH WINDS AND WAVE ACTION COULD ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR EROSION ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL ALASKA. FINALLY, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DEPICTED FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTS OF ALASKA,
FROM ABOUT PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO KETCHIKAN, NOV 1-5. THE ECENS PET IS MORE
ROBUST THAN THE GEFS PET, WITH CHANCES EXCEEDING 30% OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION
FOR 2-3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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