351
FXUS21 KWNC 251917
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 25 2024
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING WEEK-2. THIS FAVORS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA
AND ALASKA IS PREDICTED TO ACCOMPANY SURFACE LOWS OVER THE BERING SEA AND GULF
OF ALASKA THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA INCLUDING SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTS OF ALASKA, FROM
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO KETCHIKAN.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN ALASKA FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EASTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD TO KETCHIKAN, SAT-WED, NOV 2-6.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS,
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
SAT-MON, NOV 2-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, SAT-MON, NOV 2-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN ALASKA INCLUDING SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA, AND THE ALEUTIANS, SAT-WED, NOV 2-6.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY OCTOBER 28 - FRIDAY NOVEMBER 01:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY NOVEMBER 02 - FRIDAY NOVEMBER 08: THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
IN THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR MUCH OF WEEK-2 OVER THE EASTERN AND
WESTERN THIRDS OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH AN EXTENSION
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THIS REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST COULD SUPPORT ENHANCED WIND
SPEEDS AND PRECIPITATION EARLY IN WEEK-2. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS
DEPICTED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MUCH
OF OKLAHOMA, NOV 2-4. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE VARIOUS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES
TOOL (PET) INPUTS, WITH THE GEFS SOLUTION SHOWING THE LEAST SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
HIGH WINDS, COMPARED TO THE ECENS AND CMCE MODELS. THE WIND HAZARD IS FOR AN
AREA THAT HAS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
HISTORICAL PERCENTILE AND 25 MPH. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS, NOV 2-4, ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE RISK AREA HIGHLIGHTED IS PRIMARILY BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DRIER GEFS AND CMCE PETS AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER
ECENS PET. THE ECENS PET INDICATES AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL
TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH HISTORICAL PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH IN THE DESIGNATED
TIME PERIOD. THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY’S HAZARDS MAP. THIS IS ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT REACHES SOUTHERN TEXAS
BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY, WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO ITS NORTH.
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS, RAPID DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST, WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION OBSERVED SINCE THE
START OF OCTOBER, RESULTING IN DECLINING SOIL MOISTURE PERCENTILES. IF THIS
AREA DOES NOT RECEIVE THE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAT
EXTENDED-RANGE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE FAVORING, AND IF POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST, A ROD (RAPID ONSET DROUGHT) SHAPE
MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
MULTIPLE ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
BERING SEA AND ALASKA, AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WHICH ARE
PREDICTED TO BRING AN ELEVATED RISK OF HIGH WINDS TO THE EXTENSIVE SOUTHERN
COAST OF ALASKA (FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE PANHANDLE), NOV 2-6. THE PETS SHOW
AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 40 MPH.
HIGH WINDS AND WAVE ACTION COULD ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR EROSION ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL ALASKA. FINALLY, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DEPICTED FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTS OF ALASKA,
FROM ABOUT PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO KETCHIKAN, NOV 2-6. THE GEFS, CMCE, AND
ECENS PETS SHOW A HEALTHY WET SIGNAL FOR 2-3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS TIME, WITH ALL THREE PETS PREDICTING A RAPID DROPOFF IN AMOUNTS NEAR THE
3-INCH MARK.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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