195  
FXUS21 KWNC 051906  
PMDTHR  
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EST DECEMBER 05 2024  
 
SYNOPSIS: A POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS)  
AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS NOW LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE WEEK-1 PERIOD ALLOWING ALL  
RELATED HAZARDS TO BE REMOVED FROM THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES IN THE UPDATED  
OUTLOOK. FOLLOWING A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A WARMING TREND  
IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST DURING WEEK-2. MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS  
FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS FAVORING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IN  
THE WEST, WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVY COASTAL RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION  
HEAVY SNOW.  
 
HAZARDS  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND  
THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA, FRI-MON, DEC 13-16.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES, KLAMATH, AND SIERRA  
NEVADAS, FRI-MON, DEC 13-16.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES,  
FRI-MON, DEC 13-16.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS  
EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, FRI-MON, DEC 13-16.  
 
DETAILED SUMMARY  
 
FOR SUNDAY DECEMBER 08 - THURSDAY DECEMBER 12:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
FOR FRIDAY DECEMBER 13 - THURSDAY DECEMBER 19: MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN  
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES OF HAZARDOUS RAIN OR  
SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF NORTHERN STREAM  
INTERACTION. HOWEVER, THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE WEEK-1 TIME PERIOD,  
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING OVER THE EAST BY THE START OF WEEK-2,  
SUPPORTING THE REMOVAL OF THE RELATED PRECIPITATION, SNOW, AND WIND HAZARDS  
PREVIOUSLY POSTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES. WHILE SOME COLD AIR IS  
LIKELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY ACROSS THE  
EAST DURING WEEK-2, AND THIS COULD RAISE FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG PARTS OF THE  
GREAT LAKES, PARTICULARLY ERIE AND ONTARIO, DUE TO EXPECTED SNOWMELT. RETURN  
FLOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS  
THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) DEPICTS  
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS HAVING AT LEAST  
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL  
PERCENTILE AND 1-INCH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE GEFS PET DOES  
NOT INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL SIGNAL, AND A RELATED PRECIPITATION HAZARD IS NOT  
POSTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
THE 0Z ECENS AND GEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST  
COAST OF THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2, WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW  
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER, COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE INTEGRATED VAPOR  
TRANSPORT (IVT) TOOLS ARE LESS ROBUST AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR HAZARDOUS  
PRECIPITATION IN THE PETS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST. THE ECENS AND GEFS PETS  
CONTINUE TO DEPICT PARTS OF THE WEST COAST HAVING AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE  
3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 1-INCH  
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAY, A  
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA, DEC  
13-16. AN ACCOMPANYING SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS ALSO POSTED ACROSS THE  
CASCADES, KLAMATH, SIERRA NEVADAS, AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES,  
SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) PET WHICH DEPICTS AT LEAST A  
20 PERCENT CHANCE SWE EXCEEDS THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 1-INCH,  
AND THE UNCALIBRATED ECMWF PROBABILITIES INDICATING ELEVATED CHANCES FOR DAILY  
SNOWFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS. A  
BROAD SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED DEC 13-16 ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, WITH  
THE STRONGEST SIGNALS FOR WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 25-MPH BEING ALONG THE  
IMMEDIATE WEST COAST AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TIED TO INCREASED  
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. PROBABILITIES FOR WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL  
PERCENTILE ARE ELEVATED IN THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN  
REGION, SUGGESTIVE OF AN INCREASED HIGH WIND RISK IN THESE AREAS AS WELL.  
 
RIDGING IS GENERALLY FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA DURING WEEK-2. ALTHOUGH SOME  
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA, HAZARDS  
THRESHOLDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE REACHED. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA FOR WEEK-2.  
 
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW  
 

 
 
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