753
FXUS21 KWNC 132020
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 13 2025
SYNOPSIS: AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO WEEK-2,
LIKELY BRINGING HAZARDOUS COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. MULTIPLE MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK FOR PERIODS OF SANTA ANA WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA THROUGHOUT WEEK-2, WHICH COULD PROLONG
THE RISK OF WILDFIRES IN THE REGION. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS PREDICTED FOR
WEEK-2 OVER ALASKA. NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE STATE AT THIS
TIME.
HAZARDS
HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS,
MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, AND OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS,
TUE-WED, JAN 21-22.
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, TUE-WED, JAN 21-22.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES,
TUE-SAT, JAN 21-25.
MODERATE RISK OF PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, TUE-MON, JAN 21-27.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, TUE-MON, JAN 21-27.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY JANUARY 16 - MONDAY JANUARY 20:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY JANUARY 21 - MONDAY JANUARY 27: THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATING AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO
WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO USHER IN COLD ARCTIC AIR TO MUCH OF THE
REGION FROM THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. A HIGH RISK (60-80% CHANCE)
OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS DESIGNATED FOR PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS,
MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, AND OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS,
JAN 21-22, WHERE THE ECENS (GEFS) PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) SHOWS AT
LEAST A 60% (50%) CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWEST 15TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. A MODERATE RISK (40-60% CHANCE) IS POSTED FOR A
SLIGHTLY GREATER AREA EXTENDING TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, GREAT LAKES AND
TEXAS, FOR THE SAME PERIOD. A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT RISK (20-40%) IS HIGHLIGHTED
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES EXCLUDING SOUTHERN FLORIDA, JAN 21-25.
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE SOUTH, WHILE PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL
BELOW -10 DEG F, WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES POSSIBLE FOR SOME
AREAS. RECENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FALLING AT LEAST 16 DEG F BELOW NORMAL IN SOME RISK AREAS.
MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. GIVEN THE GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS
SHOWING INCREASED CHANCES FOR ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS FOR THE REGION AND OFFSHORE
FLOW FAVORABLE FOR SANTA ANA WINDS, A MODERATE RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS IS
DESIGNATED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA THROUGHOUT WEEK-2. A BROADER
AREA OF SLIGHT RISK IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR PARTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FOR THE SAME DURATION. ANTICIPATED HIGH WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD EXACERBATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRES DURING WEEK-2, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS ALREADY EXPERIENCING ACTIVE WILDFIRES.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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