177
FXUS21 KWNC 161945
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 16 2025
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) IS
PREDICTED TO CONTINUE LINGERING INCREASED RISK OF HAZARDOUS COLD TEMPERATURES
FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 TO PARTS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO MODERATE
AS MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA
FROM WEEK-1 INTO THE START OF WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN MAY CONTINUE PERIODS OF HIGH
WINDS WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA AT THE
ONSET OF WEEK-2, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FLOW
THEREAFTER. INCREASED RISK FOR HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF WEEK-2
THEREAFTER ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST,
ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST. A SERIES OF
PREDICTED SURFACE LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES AND THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS TO FALL IN THE
FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED FOR ALASKA
DURING WEEK-2, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO HAZARDS ARE DESIGNATED
FOR THE STATE AT THIS TIME.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, FRI-SAT, JAN 24-25.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, FRI-THU, JAN 24-30.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA, SUN-THU, JAN 26-30.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, FRI-SAT, JAN 24-25.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODIC HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND GULF COAST STATES, FRI-THU, JAN 24-30.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY JANUARY 19 - THURSDAY JANUARY 23:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY JANUARY 24 - THURSDAY JANUARY 30: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE INDICATION OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE. THE ECENS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COMPARED TO THE GEFS TRANSLATING TO GREATER
SIGNALS FOR ANOMALOUS COLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2.
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO HIGHLIGHT A RELATED COLD HAZARD ACROSS THIS
REGION AT THIS TIME.
WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO FAVOR MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST SHIFTING OFF
THE COAST AND WEAKENING INITIALLY IN THE PERIOD, ONLY A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, JAN 24-25. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH LOWER WIND CHILL VALUES POSSIBLE.
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS ARE PREDICTED FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SPECIFICS OF TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT IMPACTS.
THEREFORE, A BROAD AREA AND EXTENDED TIME PERIOD REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST
STATES FOR THE ENTIRETY OF WEEK-2, WHERE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF
3-DAY LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 1 INCH. ANTICIPATED FREEZING TEMPERATURES
COULD SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREAS,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE AND WHEN THIS WOULD
OCCUR.
MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THIS
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR SANTA ANA WINDS AND ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS, WITH NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TIMING OF DIMINISHING OFFSHORE FLOW AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE. A MODERATE RISK OF
EPISODIC HIGH WINDS IS MAINTAINED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA JAN
24-25. A BROADER AREA OF SLIGHT RISK IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND
THE SOUTHWEST FOR EPISODIC HIGH WINDS THROUGHOUT WEEK-2 PERIOD, WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF WINDS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD HAVING A MORE ONSHORE
COMPONENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. PREDICTED HIGH WINDS, WARM
TEMPERATURES, AND DRY CONDITIONS WOULD EXACERBATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRES DURING
WEEK-2, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALREADY EXPERIENCING ACTIVE WILDFIRES. A SLIGHT
RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR JAN 26-30, WHERE PETS INDICATE
AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 25 MPH.
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED FOR ALASKA DURING WEEK-2, FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO HAZARDS ARE DESIGNATED FOR THE STATE AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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