711
FXUS21 KWNC 102051
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 10 2025
SYNOPSIS: AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF
THE EAST, WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST REMAINS VERY CHALLENGING DURING
WEEK-2, WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORING THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, BUT NO MAJOR STORMS AT THIS TIME. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FAVORED TO MAINTAIN MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, AND ALSO PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE WEST,
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. NO
HAZARDS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALASKA.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS, SOUTHEAST, AND CAROLINA PIEDMONT, WED-THU, FEB 19-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE
CONUS, WED-THU, FEB 19-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TUE-FRI, FEB
18-21.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN CASCADES, TUE-FRI, FEB 18-21.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, TUE-FRI, FEB 18-21.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, TUE-WED, FEB 18-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, TUE-THU, FEB 18-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND, TUE, FEB 18.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHEAST,
AND THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 13 - MONDAY FEBRUARY 17:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 18 - MONDAY FEBRUARY 24: THE ECENS INDICATES THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS (ARS) BRINGING HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE WEST COAST AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING WEEK-1.
SLIGHT RISKS (20-40 PERCENT CHANCE) OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, FEB 18-21, AND A SLIGHT RISK
OF HEAVY SNOW IS FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THE
ECENS INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) MODEL GUIDANCE AND 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION
AND SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS GENERALLY SUPPORT THESE
PRECIPITATION HAZARDS WHICH IS NOT AS SUPPORTED IN THE GEFS. BEYOND THIS TIME,
THE GEFS PREDICTS LITTLE TO NO AR SIGNAL AT THE 250 KG/M/S THRESHOLD, IN
CONTRAST TO THE MUCH WETTER ECENS WHICH DOES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, NO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OR HEAVY SNOW HAZARDS ARE POSTED FOR THE WEST BEYOND FEB 21.
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR FEB 19-20, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND MOIST, LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA, A MODERATE RISK (40-60 PERCENT CHANCE) OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS DEPICTED FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS,
SOUTHEAST, AND THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT, FEB 19-20. A FLOOD RISK SHAPE IS
INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA, BASED ON PREDICTED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3-7 INCHES (LOCALLY GREATER) IN WEEK-1, AND AT LEAST
ANOTHER INCH ON TOP OF THAT IN EARLY WEEK-2. THE ECENS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE THAT
AFTER FEB 20, CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT ACROSS THIS PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. 28-DAY AVERAGE STREAM FLOWS ARE RUNNING ABOVE THE 80TH PERCENTILE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA. OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC AND
EASTERN GULF COAST REGIONS, WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PREDICTED STORM
SYSTEM, THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
STRONG.
THE WINTER STORM RISK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO HAVE HIGH UNCERTAINTY
AND IS THUS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. AS WAS THE CASE LAST WEEK, SEVERAL
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING WEEK-2,
BUT MODELS HAVE DEMONSTRATED A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND MUCH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TIMING AND EXACT LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST SNOW. TODAY’S ECENS AND GEFS ARE
FOCUSING ON ONE PARTICULAR STORM WHICH IS PREDICTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AROUND DAY 11 (FRI, FEB 21), BRINGING ANYWHERE FROM 1-4 INCHES OF
SNOW, WITH THE GEFS FORECASTING THE LOW END AND THE ECENS THE HIGH END. FOR
NOW, DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY AND RELATIVELY LOW-END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS,
THIS IS INCLUDED AS A TEXT MENTION ONLY.
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED FROM CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF WEEK-2. BASED ON THE GEFS AND
ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS), A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHERE
THERE IS AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE
15TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND -10 DEGREES F. ANY ENHANCED WINDS COULD
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -25 OR -30 DEGREES F, THE COLD ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE ECENS PET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY EXTENDING WELL INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST, IN
POSSIBLE RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD NEAR THE WEST COAST.
THIS SCENARIO WILL BE REVISITED TOMORROW.
THE ONLY DESIGNATED WIND HAZARD IS POSTED FOR NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
ON DAY 8, FEB 18, WHERE WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH 20-25 MPH (WITH HIGHER WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE). THIS IS RELATED TO A DEEP, EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PREDICTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO RANGE
BETWEEN 10-20 MPH, WHICH COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR ANY FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS IN THE
REGION. NO WIND HAZARD IS POSTED TODAY FOR THIS AREA, BUT THIS SITUATION WILL
BE REVISITED TOMORROW.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ALASKA DURING WEEK-2 AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION
FORECAST OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS, AS ARE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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