384
FXUS21 KWNC 191903
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 19 2025
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING WEEK-2. THE ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE MAY
SUPPORT A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS FOR THIS REGION. A
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODIC HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN
TEXAS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF WEEK-2. MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, INCREASING CHANCES FOR HIGH
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS,
THU-FRI, FEB 27-28.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS, THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SOUTHEAST U.S., SAT-WED, MAR 1-5.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SATURDAY FEBRUARY 22 - WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 26:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 27 - WEDNESDAY MARCH 05: MULTIPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO FEATURE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE EASTERN FRONT OF THE
ROCKIES, WHERE THEY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK (20-40% CHANCE) OF EPISODIC HIGH
WIND IS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FEB 27-28
WHERE THE ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) INDICATES AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY, WHICH IS
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY RECENT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE SLIGHT
RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN YESTERDAY’S OUTLOOK IS REMOVED
IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR SANTA ANA
WINDS.
MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2, WITH AN ORIENTATION MORE FAVORABLE FOR
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE IS
PREDICTED TO SUPPORT A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS BRINGING
PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS, THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SOUTHEAST U.S. FROM THE MIDDLE TO END OF
WEEK-2. THUS, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR THESE AREAS,
MAR 1-5. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS AND TIMING OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, PROMPTING A BROAD AREA AND PERIOD
BEING HIGHLIGHTED FOR THIS RISK. MULTIPLE GEFS TOOLS INCLUDING THE PET SHOW
INCREASED SIGNALS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS RISK AREA, COMING MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECENS SOLUTIONS. THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS SHOW AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF 3-DAY LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 1
INCH ACROSS THE RISK AREA. ENHANCED PRECIPITATION MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY SATURATED, ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR. DUE TO SIGNALS NOT BEING STRONG ENOUGH, AND A PERIOD OF DRYNESS THAT IS
FAVORED BEFOREHAND, A FLOOD RISK AREA IS NOT DESIGNATED IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK.
FROZEN PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH TRACKING LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
THROUGHOUT WEEK-2. HOWEVER, THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO
PINPOINT A SPECIFIC AREA TO HIGHLIGHT AN ASSOCIATED HEAVY SNOW RISK AT THIS
TIME.
ANOMALOUS COLD IS PREDICTED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST DURING WEEK-2, WITH THE PETS
SHOWING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWEST
15TH PERCENTILE AND BELOW ZERO DEG F (NEGATIVE WIND CHILL VALUES) ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AT VARIOUS POINTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO NO ASSOCIATED HAZARD IS POSTED AT
THIS TIME.
A POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WOULD LEAD TO MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. HOWEVER, AT
THIS TIME MODEL GUIDANCE AND TOOLS DO NOT INDICATE INCREASED POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD HAZARDS.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page