257
FXUS21 KWNC 201940
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 20 2025
SYNOPSIS: AREAS OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ARE PREDICTED FOR THE WEST COAST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. THESE
FEATURES ARE LIKELY TO SUPPORT A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE ROCKIES EASTWARD. A SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODIC
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF WEEK-2. A SURFACE LOW IS PREDICTED TO TRACK
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING HIGH WINDS TO THESE AREAS.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES REGION, FRI-SAT, FEB 28-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
THE CONUS, SUN-THU, MAR 2-6.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 23 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 27:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY FEBRUARY 28 - THURSDAY MARCH 06: MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE
LOW TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING
OF WEEK-2, WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH WINDS. A SLIGHT RISK (20-40%
CHANCE) OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS,
UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES REGION, FEB 28-MAR 1 WHERE
THE ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) INDICATES AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF
WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY, WHICH IS FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY RECENT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
MULTIPLE MODELS DEPICT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FORMING OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE
LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR WEST, WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY
SNOW TO PARTS OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT AREAS. THE GEFS PET INDICATES AT
LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE AND HALF AN INCH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR FEB
3-5. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER TOTALS WOULD MEET HAZARDS
CRITERIA, A RELATED HEAVY SNOW HAZARD IS NOT DESIGNATED AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION.
MEANWHILE, FURTHER EAST, ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND SHIFT EASTWARD, SUPPORTING POTENTIAL
SURFACE LOWS AND ANTICIPATED FRONTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT RISK OF
PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS IS
HIGHLIGHTED FOR MAR 2-6. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SPECIFIC LOCATIONS AND TIMING OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, PROMPTING A
BROAD AREA AND PERIOD BEING HIGHLIGHTED FOR THIS RISK. THE GEFS, ECENS, AND
CMCE PETS SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 1 INCH ACROSS THE RISK AREA. ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
SATURATED, ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. DUE TO SIGNALS NOT BEING STRONG
ENOUGH, AND A PERIOD OF DRYNESS THAT IS FAVORED BEFOREHAND, A FLOOD RISK AREA
IS NOT DESIGNATED IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK. FROZEN PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH TRACKING
LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS THROUGHOUT WEEK-2. HOWEVER, THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT A SPECIFIC AREA TO HIGHLIGHT AN ASSOCIATED
HEAVY SNOW RISK AT THIS TIME.
ANOMALOUS COLD IS PREDICTED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST DURING WEEK-2, WITH THE PETS
SHOWING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWEST
15TH PERCENTILE AND BELOW ZERO DEG F (NEGATIVE WIND CHILL VALUES) ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AT VARIOUS POINTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO NO ASSOCIATED HAZARD IS POSTED AT
THIS TIME.
A POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WOULD LEAD TO MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. HOWEVER, AT
THIS TIME MODEL GUIDANCE AND TOOLS DO NOT INDICATE INCREASED POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD HAZARDS.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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