177
FXUS21 KWNC 062016
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST MARCH 06 2025
SYNOPSIS: EARLY IN WEEK-2, MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND INTO THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE-SCALE SURFACE
CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, TRACKING TOWARD
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES, WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE LIKELY
FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGING FROM HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY FRONTALLY FOCUSED RAINFALL ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH WINDS ARE
ALSO A CONCERN DUE TO STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS EXPECTED. ANOTHER
MID-LEVEL LOW IS PREDICTED TO AMPLIFY NEAR THE WEST COAST FAVORING RENEWED
CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, DRY
CONDITIONS, AND HIGH WINDS FAVOR AN INCREASING WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
APPALACHIANS, SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST, FRI-SUN, MAR 14-16.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, FRI-SUN, MAR 14-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS, FRI-SUN, MAR 14-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, FRI-TUE, MAR 14-18.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, FRI-SAT, MAR 14-15.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES, KLAMATH,
AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, FRI-SUN, MAR 14-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CASCADES, KLAMATH, AND NORTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA MOUNTAINS, FRI-TUE, MAR 14-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS, AND UPPER MIDWEST, FRI-SAT, MAR 14-15.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, GREAT PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO,
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, FRI-SAT, MAR 14-15.
MODERATE RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, FRI-SUN, MAR 14-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS, FRI-SUN, MAR 14-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST, FRI-TUE,
MAR 14-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
FRI, MAR 14.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY MARCH 09 - THURSDAY MARCH 13:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY MARCH 14 - THURSDAY MARCH 20: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2 FAVORING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH THE 0Z ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE
DYNAMICAL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE
PERIOD, WITH SEVERAL OF THE LAST DETERMINISTIC RUNS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICTING A SUB 980-HPA LOW. WHILE THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) ARE
MORE MODEST, THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A LARGE-SCALE IMPACTFUL
EVENT, WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST AND HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST. A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ISSUED FOR MAR 14-16 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, WITH AN EMBEDDED MODERATE RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, APPALACHIANS, SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST FOR THE
SAME PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH STRONGER SIGNALS IN THE UNCALIBRATED PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN IS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTH ON MAR
14-15, THEN SHIFTING MORE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ON MAR 15-16.
ANTECEDENT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY WARM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST (UP TO 20 DEG F ABOVE-NORMAL) FURTHER ENHANCING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. DUE TO THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION RISK
AND ANTECEDENT SATURATED CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION FAVORED DURING WEEK-1 (BASED ON WPC
QPF), LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW, HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z ECENS DEPICTING PARTS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS HAVING AT LEAST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOWFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING 4 INCHES. AS WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE SNOW FORECAST LEANS
MORE BULLISH DUE TO THE IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING SURFACE
LOW PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH, WITH A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW HIGHLIGHTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, MAR 14-15. A BROADER SLIGHT
RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW SURROUNDS THE MODERATE RISK AREA AND IS ALSO VALID FOR MAR
14-15.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF ANOTHER SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD
THE END OF WEEK-2 (MAR 19-20) AND TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. THIS POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL U.S. WOULD CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.
DUE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENTS, A BROAD AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH
WINDS, COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, MAR 14-16. WITHIN
THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA, THE PETS DEPICT AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND
SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 20-MPH OVER SOME LOCATIONS. A MODERATE
RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS ALSO POSTED (MAR 14-15) OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, GREAT PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TIED TO THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. A PERIOD OF ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2, WITH THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z ECENS
SHOWING SOME AREAS WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 95 DEG F (CLOSER TO 90
DEG F IN THE GEFS) ALONG WITH INCREASING SIGNALS IN THE CORRESPONDING PETS. A
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED ACROSS THE REGION, MAR
14, AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGH WINDS, MAY INCREASE THE WILDFIRE RISK,
WHERE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS PREDOMINATELY FAVORED AND DROUGHT
CONDITIONS RANGING FROM D0 TO D4 ARE BEING REGISTERED. THE CONTINUATION OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST SUPPORT THE
ADDITION OF AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RAPID DROUGHT ONSET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NEAR THE WEST COAST LEADING TO RENEWED
CHANCES OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWING A BRIEF LULL AT THE
END OF WEEK-1. THE ECENS PET DEPICTS AT LEAST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 3-DAY
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY IN WEEK-2. PROBABILITIES
ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE GEFS PET, BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE FOR 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO POTENTIALLY EXCEED
1-INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. AREAS IMPACTED WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING
COMPARED TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DUE TO HIGH SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED
WITH ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE STRONGER SIGNALS, A MODERATE RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, MAR 14-16, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES, KLAMATH, AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS. A FLOODING RISK REMAINS OVER THE MORE SATURATED AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION, HIGH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COAST, WITH A MODERATE RISK
OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, MAR
14-16. SLIGHT RISKS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HEAVY SNOW, AND HIGH WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH MAR 18, AFTER WHICH THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME EVIDENCE OF RIDGING
BUILDING NEAR THE WEST COAST, PARTICULARLY IN THE 0Z ECENS AND CMCE, WHICH
WOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS.
NO HAZARDS ARE POSTED OVER ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE MAINLAND WITH NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THE SOUTHEAST.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
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