112
FXUS21 KWNC 072106
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST MARCH 07 2025
SYNOPSIS: EARLY IN WEEK-2, MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE-SCALE SURFACE CYCLONE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, TRACKING TOWARD THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE LIKELY FROM
THIS SYSTEM RANGING FROM HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND POTENTIALLY
HEAVY FRONTALLY FOCUSED RAINFALL ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN
DUE TO STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS EXPECTED. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL LOW IS
PREDICTED TO AMPLIFY NEAR THE WEST COAST FAVORING RENEWED CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES, VERY DRY CONDITIONS, AND HIGH WINDS
FAVOR AN INCREASING WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
HAZARDS
HIGH RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL GULF REGION NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY, SAT-SUN, MAR 15-16.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC,
NEW YORK, AND NEW ENGLAND, SAT-SUN, MAR 15-16.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, SAT-MON, MAR 15-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS, SAT-MON, MAR 15-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, SAT-TUE, MAR 15-18.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SAT, MAR 15.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES, KLAMATH,
AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, SAT-MON, MAR 15-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CASCADES, KLAMATH, AND NORTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA MOUNTAINS, SAT-TUE, MAR 15-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS, AND UPPER MIDWEST, SAT, MAR 15.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, SAT, MAR 15.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS, GREAT LAKES, AND MID-ATLANTIC, SAT-SUN, MAR 15-16.
MODERATE RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, SAT-MON, MAR 15-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS, SAT-MON, MAR 15-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ALONG THE COASTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, SAT-TUE, MAR 15-18.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY MARCH 10 - FRIDAY MARCH 14:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY MARCH 15 - FRIDAY MARCH 21: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DURING
WEEK-2, FAVORING LEE CYCLOGENESIS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
THE 0Z ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE DYNAMICAL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD, WITH SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICTING A SUB 980-HPA LOW. WHILE THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS
(PETS) ARE MORE MODEST, THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A LARGE-SCALE
IMPACTFUL EVENT, WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AND HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ISSUED FOR MAR 15-17
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE AND HIGH
RISKS DEPICTED, MAINLY FOCUSED ON MAR 15-16, CONSISTENT WITH STRONGER SIGNALS
IN THE UNCALIBRATED PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN IS
FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTH ON MAR 15-16, THEN SHIFTING MORE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ON MAR 16-17. ANTECEDENT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE OHIO
VALLEY (UP TO 20-25 DEG F ABOVE-NORMAL), WITH +10 TO +15 DEGREE DEPARTURES OVER
THE NORTHEAST, FURTHER ENHANCING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF A POTENT
COLD FRONT. DUE TO THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION RISK AND ANTECEDENT SATURATED
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION FAVORED DURING WEEK-1 (BASED ON WPC QPF), LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN A BROAD AREA THAT INCLUDES THE SOUTHERN OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW, HEAVY SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z
ECENS DEPICTING PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS HAVING AT LEAST A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOWFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES. TODAY’S 0Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF
AND 6Z DETERMINISTIC GFS MODELS PREDICT THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE UP TO A FOOT
OF SNOW IN THIS REGION. AS WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE SNOW FORECAST
LEANS MORE BULLISH DUE TO THE IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING
SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH, WITH A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW
HIGHLIGHTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, MAR 15. A
BROADER SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW SURROUNDS THE MODERATE RISK AREA AND IS ALSO
VALID FOR MAR 15.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF MODEL OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF WEEK-2 (MAR 19-21) AND TAKING A
SIMILAR TRACK, BUT TODAY’S GFS IS LESS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. WOULD CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL.
DUE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENTS, A BROAD AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH
WINDS, COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, MAR 15-17. WITHIN
THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA, THE PETS DEPICT AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND
SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 20-MPH OVER SOME LOCATIONS. TWO
EMBEDDED MODERATE RISK WIND AREAS ARE POSTED. THE FIRST INCLUDES PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MAR 15. THE SECOND
MODERATE RISK AREA IS LARGER, ENCOMPASSING PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES,
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES
REGION, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MOST OF THE APPALACHIANS, AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC, MAR 15-16. BOTH AREAS ARE TIED TO THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY (ABOUT 20 DEGREES F OR MORE) WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CYCLONE’S
COLD FRONT. IN LAREDO,TEXAS, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 100 DEG F
JUST BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 AND JUST PRIOR TO THE PREDICTED COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. THIS WILL BRIEFLY LESSEN THE WILDFIRE RISK, BUT AS TEMPERATURES
REBOUND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS, AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RAPID DROUGHT ONSET REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NEAR THE WEST COAST LEADING TO RENEWED
CHANCES OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWING A BRIEF LULL AT THE
END OF WEEK-1. THE ECENS PET DEPICTS AT LEAST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 3-DAY
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY IN WEEK-2. PROBABILITIES
ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE GEFS PET, BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE FOR 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO POTENTIALLY EXCEED
1-INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. AREAS IMPACTED WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING
COMPARED TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DUE TO HIGH SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED
WITH ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE STRONGER SIGNALS, A MODERATE RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, MAR 15-17, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES, KLAMATH, AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS. A FLOODING RISK REMAINS OVER THE MORE SATURATED AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION, HIGH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COAST, WITH A MODERATE RISK
OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, MAR
15-17. SLIGHT RISKS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HEAVY SNOW, AND HIGH WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH MAR 18, AFTER WHICH THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME EVIDENCE OF RIDGING
BUILDING NEAR THE WEST COAST, WHICH WOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS.
NO HAZARDS ARE POSTED OVER ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE MAINLAND WITH NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THE SOUTHEAST.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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