248  
FXUS21 KWNC 191849  
PMDTHR  
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EDT MARCH 19 2025  
 
SYNOPSIS: AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORED TO BRING A  
VARIETY OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO MANY PARTS OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.  
(CONUS) DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COME  
ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2, MOVE INTO THE GREAT  
PLAINS AND INTENSIFY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD THEN TRACK TO THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION BY THE END OF WEEK-2, BRINGING POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW, HIGH WINDS, AND  
HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE CONUS.  
 
HAZARDS  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON, OREGON,  
AND CALIFORNIA NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY, THU-WED, MAR 27-APR 2.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, THU-SUN, MAR  
28-31.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, SAT-WED, MAR  
30-APR 2.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF  
WASHINGTON, OREGON, AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, THU-WED, MAR 27-APR 2.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO,  
TENNESSEE, AND LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, SAT-MON, MAR 29-31.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS,  
THU-SAT, MAR 27-29.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CASCADE, KLAMATH, AND SIERRA  
NEVADA MOUNTAINS, THU-WED, MAR 27-APR 2.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THU-WED, MAR  
27-APR 2.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, SAT-WED, MAR  
29-APR 2.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, SAT-TUE, MAR 29-APR 1.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND AND LOWER GREAT  
LAKES REGION, SAT-TUE, MAR 29-31.  
 
RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
 
DETAILED SUMMARY  
 
FOR SATURDAY MARCH 22 - WEDNESDAY MARCH 26:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
FOR THURSDAY MARCH 27 - WEDNESDAY APRIL 02: ODAY’S ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS  
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS DEPICTED IN 500-HPA  
HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND HAVE HAD GOOD DAY-TO-DAY CONTINUITY AS WELL. HOWEVER,  
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE INTENSITY AND EVOLUTION OF  
SURFACE FEATURES, PARTICULARLY THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CYCLOGENESIS EVENT  
FORECAST TO UNFOLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DEPICT  
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTHEAST U.S. AND  
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER THE REST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK-2  
PERIOD.  
 
MULTIPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT PERSISTENT TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT  
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC RESULTING IN A STEADY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING OVER  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) TOOL INDICATES VERY  
HIGH PROBABILITIES OF IVT TO EXCEED 150 KG/M S FROM BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEFS  
THROUGHOUT WEEK-2, PARTICULARLY AFTER DAY-10 (MAR 29). THE PRECIPITATION  
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS SHOW A MORE  
COHERENT SIGNAL THAN YESTERDAY WITH REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY  
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST COAST, INDICATING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY  
PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND AT  
LEAST 1 INCH WELL INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS  
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS  
MONTEREY BAY FOR MARCH 27-APR 2. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS ALSO POSTED FOR  
THE CASCADE, KLAMATH, AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS FOR THE SAME PERIOD,  
AS WELL AS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER  
TO MONTEREY BAY.  
 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE COURSE OF WEEK-2. THIS  
IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC MOISTURE GETTING PUSHED  
FURTHER INLAND, FAVORING ENHANCED SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE  
UNCALIBRATED ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATES ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF 3-DAY SNOWFALL  
EXCEEDING 6 INCHES THROUGHOUT WEEK-2, THUS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS  
POSTED FOR MAR 27-APR 2 FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS WEEK-2 PROGRESSES  
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE PACIFIC IS FAVORED TO INCREASE, THE CHANCE FOR  
HEAVY SNOW SPREADS SOUTHWARD, WARRANTING A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH  
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FOR MAR 29-APR 2.  
 
AS THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES FURTHER EASTWARD, ENSEMBLES DEPICT  
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS DURING THE  
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. MODEL DEPICTIONS OF MSLP ANOMALIES INDICATE A  
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY MARCH 28,  
RESULTING IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AT  
THE SURFACE. THE PETS FOR MAXIMUM WIND SPEED SHOW A BETTER SIGNAL THAN  
YESTERDAY WITH REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMES IN WIND SPEED, NOW  
INDICATING WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF MAXIMUM WIND SPEED EXCEEDING THE 85TH  
PERCENTILE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BY MAR 28, THEN SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF WEEK-2. THIS, ALONG WITH A  
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND CONSISTENT MODEL DEPICTIONS OF STRONG CYCLOGENESIS  
OCCURRING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, WARRANTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS TO BE  
POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR MAR 28-31, ALONG WITH MOST OF THE  
EASTERN CONUS EXCLUDING ONLY PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR MAR 30-APR 2.  
 
MULTIPLE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ALSO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY  
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT WINDS UP AND DRAWS IN GULF  
MOISTURE. EARLY IN WEEK-2 MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR  
CONVECTION IN SOUTH TEXAS, WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECMWF PETS  
FOR PRECIPITATION, INDICATING AT LEAST A 20% PROBABILITY OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION  
TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND AT LEAST 0.5 INCH, SO A SLIGHT RISK OF  
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS FOR MAR 27-29. FURTHER  
EAST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEST SUPPORT FROM THE PETS INDICATING AT LEAST A  
20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE FOR MAR  
29-31, WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE BULLISH THAN THE GEFS. WHILE THERE IS SOME  
SPREAD AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE DETAILS, ONCE AGAIN THE OVERALL GOOD  
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THUS WARRANTING THE ISSUANCE OF A  
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND  
LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FOR MAR 29-31. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GEFS  
PET FOR SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) HAS A STRONGER SIGNAL, INDICATING AT LEAST  
A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY SWE EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE FOR PORTIONS OF THE  
NORTHERN CONUS AS THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. UNCALIBRATED ECMWF PROBABILITIES FOR  
SNOWFALL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW FOR THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TODAY INCREASED COVERAGE TO INCLUDE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. SLIGHT RISKS FOR HEAVY SNOW ARE POSTED  
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND UPPER GREAT  
LAKES REGION FOR MARCH 29-APR 1, AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES  
REGION AND NORTHEAST U.S. FOR MAR 29-31.  
 
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING BELOW-NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION FOR SOME TIME NOW, A TREND THAT IS UNFORTUNATELY FAVORED TO  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. A RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) REMAINS  
POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN TEXAS, DUE TO ANTECEDENT  
DRY CONDITIONS AND ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION DEFICITS. THERE ARE INSUFFICIENT  
INDICATIONS AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS TO WARRANT A RISK OF MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY’S WEEK-2 HAZARDS OUTLOOK, BUT NONETHELESS VERY  
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY  
AND BIG BEND REGIONS. ANTICIPATED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH  
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR  
WILDFIRES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.  
 
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN  
 
 
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