387
FXUS21 KWNC 201855
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 20 2025
SYNOPSIS: AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORED TO BRING A
VARIETY OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO MANY PARTS OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND WEST COAST IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR HAZARDOUS PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING
HIGH ELEVATION HEAVY SNOW, AND WIND SPEEDS TO MANY PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE PREDICTED TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THESE DISTURBANCES MAY LEAD TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION, HEAVY SNOW, AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES FROM
THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST COAST,
FRI-THU, MAR 28-APR 3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND SOUTHEAST U.S.,
FRI-SUN, MAR 28-30.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CASCADES, KLAMATH, AND SIERRA
NEVADA MOUNTAINS, MAR 28-APR 3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, FRI-SUN, MAR 28-30.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST,
SAT-MON, MAR 29-31.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES, FRI-THU, MAR 28-APR 3.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST COAST, FRI-THU,
MAR 28-APR 3.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND COLORADO, FRI-TUE, MAR 28-APR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, GREAT LAKES REGION, MID-ATLANTIC,
AND NORTHEAST, FRI-TUE, MAR 28-APR 1.
RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY MARCH 23 - THURSDAY MARCH 27:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY MARCH 28 - THURSDAY APRIL 03: TODAY’S ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS DEPICTED IN 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND HAVE GOOD DAY-TO-DAY CONTINUITY AS WELL. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE INTENSITY AND EVOLUTION OF SURFACE
FEATURES, ESPECIALLY THE POTENTIAL OF A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ANTICIPATED TO
FORM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. DUE TO THIS HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS OF
POTENTIAL TRACKING STORMS, SLIGHT RISKS FOR MULTIPLE HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE
DESIGNATED FOR MANY PARTS OF THE CONUS.
MULTIPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WEST COAST THROUGHOUT WEEK-2, WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO
ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW TO PARTS OF THE WEST. THE GEFS AND ECENS INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT (IVT) TOOL INDICATES GREATER PROBABILITIES OF VALUES EXCEEDING 250
KG/M S AND SPATIAL EXTENT EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH IN CALIFORNIA COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THUS THE SLIGHT RISKS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
ARE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH IN CALIFORNIA THAN YESTERDAY’S OUTLOOK. THE
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODIC HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE WEST
COAST, AND HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CASCADES, KLAMATH, AND SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF WEEK-2, WHERE THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY
ACCUMULATED LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND ONE INCH. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THESE PRECIPITATION
HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE PERIOD, WHERE THE IVT
TOOLS SHOW THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED VALUES AND ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A
FAVORABLE SET UP OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS
IS CONTINUED FOR THE WEST COAST AS WELL, WHICH IS ALSO EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH
IN CALIFORNIA, FOR THE DURATION OF WEEK-2. MULTIPLE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A
20% CHANCE OF THESE AREAS HAVING WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE,
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE ANTICIPATED SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RECENT DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLUTIONS.
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS AND ACCOMPANYING FRONTS ARE PREDICTED TO FORM OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST DURING THE PERIOD. THESE FEATURES SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF
PERIODIC HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGHOUT
WEEK-2, AND A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND COLORADO, MAR 28-APR 1. THE
UNCALIBRATED ECENS ENSEMBLES INDICATE INCREASED CHANCES FOR 3-DAY SNOWFALL
TOTALS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES (6 INCHES LOCALLY), WHILE THE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST
A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH ACROSS THE
HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREAS.
FARTHER EAST, MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO FORM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF
WEEK-2, INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAZARDOUS PRECIPITATION AND WIND SPEEDS TO
AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPECIFICS
OF THE SURFACE LOW INTENSITIES AND TRACKS, SLIGHT RISKS ARE HIGHLIGHTED FOR
BROAD AREAS. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS DESIGNATED FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHERN PLAINS,
AND SOUTHEAST U.S., MAR 28-30, WHERE PETS SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH OR WHERE UNCALIBRATED
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION. SLIGHT
RISKS FOR HEAVY SNOW ARE POSTED FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST, MAR 28-30, AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST, MAR 29-31. THESE AREAS ARE HIGHLIGHTED
BASED ON THE GEFS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) PET INDICATING AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF 3-DAY TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND FURTHER SUPPORTED BY
UNCALIBRATED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND RECENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS. A
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS IS DESIGNATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, GREAT LAKES REGION,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST, MAR 28-APR 1, ASSOCIATED WITH THESE POTENTIAL
SERIES OF STORMS.
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND BIG BEND REGIONS OF TEXAS. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AND ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THESE PREDICTED CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND CURRENT PRECIPITATION DEFICITS SUPPORT THE CONTINUED RISK OF
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS PREDICTED TO
SUPPORT PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, BUT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BRING WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS THAT REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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