015
FXUS21 KWNC 241909
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 24 2025
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WEST COAST IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HEAVY HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW, AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA AT
THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. SURFACE LOWS ARE PREDICTED TO FORM OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST AND IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR HIGH WINDS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
AND EASTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION. THESE LOWS IN ADDITION TO ENHANCED ONSHORE
FLOW ALSO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND
CALIFORNIA, TUE-WED, APR 1-2.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CASCADES, KLAMATH, AND SIERRA
NEVADA MOUNTAINS, TUE-WED, APR 1-2.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CALIFORNIA, TUE-WED, APR 1-2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CALIFORNIA, TUE-THU, APR 1-3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CASCADES, KLAMATH, AND SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS, TUE-THU, APR 1-3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA,
TUE-THU, APR 1-3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND EASTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION, TUE-THU, APR 1-3.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES, TUE-THU, APR 1-3.
RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY MARCH 27 - MONDAY MARCH 31:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY APRIL 01 - MONDAY APRIL 07: THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVING
OVER THE WEST COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, BRINGING ENHANCED MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. THIS PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA, WITH CHANCES DECREASING BY THE LATTER PART
OF THE PERIOD AS THIS TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS. MODERATE RISKS ARE DESIGNATED
FOR APR 1-2 FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND
CALIFORNIA, HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CASCADES, KLAMATH, AND SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS, AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA. THE GEFS
AND ECENS INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) TOOLS INDICATE ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 250 KG/M S DURING THE HIGHLIGHTED MODERATE RISK
PERIODS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW. THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) INDICATE AT LEAST A 40% CHANCE OF 3-DAY
LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND ONE
INCH, 2 INCHES LOCALLY FOR THE HIGHLIGHTED MODERATE RISK REGIONS. BROADER AREAS
OF SLIGHT RISKS ARE IDENTIFIED FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA, AND HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CASCADES, KLAMATH,
AND SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, APR 1-3 WHERE THE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THESE THRESHOLDS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WHERE 28-DAY STREAMFLOWS
HAVE BEEN AT GREATER THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THE ECENS PET INDICATES AT LEAST
A 30% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 35 MPH. MODERATE
(APR 1-2) AND SLIGHT (APR 1-3) RISKS FOR HIGH WINDS ARE DESIGNATED FOR PARTS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA BASED ON PETS, AND ANTICIPATED SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FROM ENSEMBLE MEANS AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE.
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE PREDICTED TO FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE THAT MAY SUPPORT PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CONUS. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND EASTERN FOUR
CORNERS REGION, APR 1-3. ADDITIONALLY, THESE FEATURES IN ADDITION TO ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES, APR 1-3. THIS RISK IS DESIGNATED BASED ON WHERE GEFS SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) TOOL INDICATES 3-DAY SWE TOTALS (AT THE BEGINNING OF
WEEK-2) EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE, FURTHER SUPPORTED BY ANTICIPATED
ENHANCED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE UNCALIBRATED ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. AS THESE
SURFACE LOWS MOVE FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EASTWARD, SOME AREAS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MAY GET LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND TOOLS REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THESE
POTENTIAL LOWS IN ADDITION TO INSUFFICIENT SIGNALS FOR THRESHOLDS REACHING
HAZARDOUS CRITERIA TO DESIGNATE ANY ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ENHANCED
WIND SPEEDS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK-2 PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EASTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION. THESE
PREDICTED CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS SUPPORT THE CONTINUED RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD)
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS PREDICTED TO
SUPPORT PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, BUT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BRING WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS THAT REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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