342
FXUS21 KWNC 251826
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 25 2025
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HIGH
WINDS, AND HEAVY SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HEAVY
SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN WEST.
PREDICTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT
PLAINS INCREASES THE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST.
AS THESE SYSTEMS PROGRESS EASTWARD, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS, APPALACHIANS,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST. CHANCES FOR HEAVY SNOW ARE ALSO INCREASED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, WED, APR 2.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CASCADES, KLAMATH, AND SIERRA
NEVADA MOUNTAINS, WED, APR 2.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
OREGON, WED, APR 2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CALIFORNIA, WED-THU, APR 2-3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CASCADES, KLAMATH, AND SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS, WED-THU, APR 2-3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA,
WED-THU, APR 2-3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND EASTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION, WED-FRI, APR 2-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE ROCKIES, WED-FRI, APR 2-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, WED-FRI,
APR 2-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, WED-FRI, APR
2-4.
RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY MARCH 28 - TUESDAY APRIL 01:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 02 - TUESDAY APRIL 08: THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL TROUGHING FORMING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, BRINGING ENHANCED
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. MODERATE RISKS ARE
DESIGNATED FOR APR 2 FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
OREGON AND CALIFORNIA, HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CASCADES, KLAMATH, AND
SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND
CALIFORNIA. THE GEFS AND ECENS INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) TOOLS INDICATE
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 250 KG/M S DURING THE HIGHLIGHTED MODERATE
RISK PERIODS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW. THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) INDICATE AT LEAST A 40% CHANCE OF 3-DAY
LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND ONE
INCH, 2 INCHES LOCALLY FOR THE HIGHLIGHTED MODERATE RISK REGIONS. BROADER AREAS
OF SLIGHT RISKS ARE IDENTIFIED FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA, AND HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CASCADES, KLAMATH,
AND SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, APR 2-3 WHERE THE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THESE THRESHOLDS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WHERE 28-DAY STREAMFLOWS
HAVE BEEN AT GREATER THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THE ECENS PET INDICATES AT LEAST
A 30% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 35 MPH. MODERATE
(APR 2) AND SLIGHT (APR 2-3) RISKS FOR HIGH WINDS ARE DESIGNATED FOR PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA BASED ON PETS, AND ANTICIPATED SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FROM ENSEMBLE MEANS AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE.
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE PREDICTED TO FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MAY SUPPORT PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CONUS. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND EASTERN FOUR CORNERS
REGION, APR 2-4. IN ADDITION, THE WEEK-2 EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS REGION, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS INCREASING THE RISK OF WILDFIRES.
THESE FEATURES AND ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES, SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS IS SUPPORTED AMONG THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS AND
RAW GUIDANCE. WITH THE ECENS AND 6Z GEFS BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH RELATIVE TO PRIOR FORECASTS, THE MOGOLLON RIM
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES HAVE BEEN ADDED TO YESTERDAY’S FORECAST OF A SLIGHT RISK
OF HEAVY SNOW POSTED FOR THE ROCKIES, APR 2-4.
AS THESE SURFACE LOWS MOVE FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EASTWARD, SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MAY SEE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THERE IS AN
INCREASED SIGNAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THE
ECENS PET INDICATES 20-40% CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE 85TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE. RAW ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH ARE ALSO ELEVATED IN BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS FOR THESE
AREAS. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS DESIGNATED FOR THESE
REGIONS FOR APR 2-4. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THIS RISK MAY PERSIST LONGER INTO
WEEK-2 BUT THERE IS REDUCED AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECENS BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD. IN THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, THUS A HEAVY SNOW RISK IS POSTED FOR THE REGION FOR
APR 2-4.
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ENHANCED
WIND SPEEDS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK-2 PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EASTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION. THESE
PREDICTED CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS SUPPORT THE CONTINUED RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD)
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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