932
FXUS21 KWNC 261838
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 26 2025
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HIGH
WINDS, AND HEAVY SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HEAVY
SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN WEST.
PREDICTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT
PLAINS INCREASES THE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST.
AS THESE SYSTEMS PROGRESS EASTWARD, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS, APPALACHIANS,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST. CHANCES FOR HEAVY SNOW ARE ALSO INCREASED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND
CALIFORNIA, THU, APR 3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CASCADES, KLAMATH, AND SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS, THU, APR 3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA,
THU, APR 3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND EASTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION, THU-SAT, APR 3-5.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE ROCKIES, THU-SAT, APR 3-5.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, THU-SUN, APR 3-6.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, GREAT
LAKES, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, THU-FRI, APR 3-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, THU-FRI, APR
3-4.
RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SATURDAY MARCH 29 - WEDNESDAY APRIL 02:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR THURSDAY APRIL 03 - WEDNESDAY APRIL 09: THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL TROUGHING FORMING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST PRIOR TO ONSET OF WEEK-2, BRINGING ENHANCED
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. BY THE START OF WEEK-2, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO BE INTO THE WEEK-1 PERIOD ACROSS THE WEST AND THE MODERATE RISKS
FOR PRECIPITATION, SNOW, AND WIND FROM PRIOR FORECAST HAVE TIMED OFF TODAY.
LINGERING SLIGHT RISKS REMAIN FORECAST FOR APR 3 FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND CALIFORNIA, HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CASCADES, KLAMATH, AND SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND CALIFORNIA. THE GEFS AND ECENS INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT (IVT) TOOLS INDICATE MOST OF THE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING
250 KG/M S HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE WEEK-1 PERIOD. THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) INDICATE A REDUCTION IN CHANCES FOR 3-DAY
LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND ONE
INCH RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WHERE 28-DAY STREAMFLOWS HAVE
BEEN AT GREATER THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS INDICATE AT
LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE. A SLIGHT RISK
FOR HIGH WINDS IS DESIGNATED FOR APR 3 ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND CALIFORNIA BASED ON PETS, AND ANTICIPATED SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE.
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE PREDICTED TO FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MAY SUPPORT PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CONUS. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND EASTERN FOUR CORNERS
REGION, APR 3-5.
THESE FEATURES AND ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES, SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS IS SUPPORTED AMONG THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS AND
RAW GUIDANCE. WITH THE ECENS AND 6Z GEFS BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH RELATIVE TO PRIOR FORECASTS, THE MOGOLLON RIM
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES HAVE BEEN ADDED TO YESTERDAY’S FORECAST OF A SLIGHT RISK
OF HEAVY SNOW POSTED FOR THE ROCKIES, APR 3-5.
A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS DURING
WEEK-2. THE ECENS BASED GUIDANCE FEATURES A ROBUST MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING A PERIOD OF INCREASED RISK FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS,
APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST. FOLLOWING THIS WAVE, A SECOND SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND
LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. MUCH OF THIS
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS REGION IS FAVORED TO BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE.
THEREFORE, TWO SLIGHT RISKS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE POSTED TODAY. FIRST IS
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC FOR APR 3-4. THE SECOND IS FOR APR 3-6 ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
FINALLY, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR APR 3-4 ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST.
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ENHANCED
WIND SPEEDS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK-2 PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EASTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION. THESE
PREDICTED CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS SUPPORT THE CONTINUED RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD)
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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