091  
FXUS21 KWNC 271838  
PMDTHR  
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EDT MARCH 27 2025  
 
SYNOPSIS: HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL  
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING WEEK-2 ASSOCIATED WITH FORECAST MID-LEVEL LOW  
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST AND PREDICTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING ELEVATED CHANCES  
FOR HIGH WINDS TO PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND  
GREAT PLAINS. SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IN HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST.  
 
HAZARDS  
 
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER  
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEAST, FRI-SUN, APR 4-6.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, SOUTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,  
FRI-MON, APR 4-7.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, ROCKIES, AND FOUR  
CORNERS REGION, FRI-SUN, APR 4-6.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN, AND SOUTHWEST, FRI-SAT, APR 4-5.  
 
FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  
 
DETAILED SUMMARY  
 
FOR SUNDAY MARCH 30 - THURSDAY APRIL 03:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
FOR FRIDAY APRIL 04 - THURSDAY APRIL 10: DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO  
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR  
WEST AND IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS  
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THE ECENS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE  
HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THIS PATTERN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE GEFS HAS  
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY. THE ECENS BASED PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL  
(PET) BRINGS 30-40% CHANCES FOR 3 DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO EXCEED THE 85TH  
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE. RAW GUIDANCE FROM THE ECENS AND EUROPEAN AIFS WOULD  
BRING MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND  
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE GEFS BASED REFORECAST, RAW GUIDANCE, AND HEIGHT PATTERN  
ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PATTERN RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY AND THE GEFS PET  
HIGHLIGHTS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3 DAY AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH  
PERCENTILE. THEREFORE, A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR APR  
4-6 FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WITHIN THIS  
HAZARD, A FLOODING POSSIBLE HAZARD IS ALSO POSTED WHERE WATER MODELS HIGHLIGHT  
THE STRONGEST CHANCES WHERE FLOODING MAY OCCUR. FINALLY, A BROADER SLIGHT RISK  
IS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS,  
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST, APR 4-7. THE ECENS  
IS MORE SUPPORTIVE TO THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION RISK EXTENDING INTO THE MIDDLE OF  
WEEK-2 RELATIVE TO THE GEFS, WHICH BEGINS BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE  
WESTERN PLAINS BY DAY 10.  
 
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED MAY SUPPORT PERIODS  
OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. THE ECENS PET  
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AT LEAST 30% CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH  
PERCENTILE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PLAINS. THERE IS A BIT BETTER  
AGREEMENT IN RAW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR ENHANCED WINDS ALL THE WAY TO THE CANADIAN  
BORDER TODAY. AS SUCH, THE SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED AND EXPANDED IN  
COVERAGE TO INCLUDE PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, APR 4-6. ANOMALOUSLY  
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THESE  
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS AND ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS  
INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EASTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION.  
 
THESE FEATURES, AND ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEEK-1 PERIOD TO BRING  
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES, SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF  
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS IS SUPPORTED  
AMONG THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS AND RAW GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT  
RISK OF HEAVY SNOW REMAINS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, APR 4-5.  
 
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT  
 
 
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