164
FXUS21 KWNC 311811
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 31 2025
SYNOPSIS: STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FAVORED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
U.S, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS EARLY IN WEEK-2. WHILE THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF WELCOMED
DRYNESS FOR AREAS AFFECTED BY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN WEEK-1, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP
FAVORS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY ADVERSELY
IMPACT EMERGING SPRINGTIME VEGETATION FOLLOWING A VERY WARM MARCH FOR MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. UPSTREAM, MEAN MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS FREE OF WEATHER RELATED HAZARDS,
WITH ANY ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS,
APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST, TUE-WED, APR 8-9.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS, TUE-THU, APR 8-10.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, TUE-WED, APR 8-9.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY APRIL 03 - MONDAY APRIL 07:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY APRIL 08 - MONDAY APRIL 14: A LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS TO
BE UNDERWAY LEADING INTO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, WHERE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ADVERTISING AMPLIFIED RIDGING (TROUGHING) OVER WESTERN (EASTERN)
NORTH AMERICA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY STILL APPEARS TO BE A PLAYER EARLY NEXT WEEK,
POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TIED TO A DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM. WHILE TOOLS ARE UNSUPPORTIVE OF A
HEAVY PRECIPITATION RISK BY THE START OF WEEK-2, THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT IN THE
TOOLS FOR EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AT THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FOR APR 8-9. ANY
RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEING WRAPPED IN THE DEEPENING LOW MAY LEAD TO ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND APPALACHIANS, THOUGH MODELS ARE
UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY AMOUNTS EXCEEDING HEAVY SNOW THRESHOLDS.
RELATIVE TO WEEK-1, CONSIDERABLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, AND BRINGING UNSEASONABLY
COLD, AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR MANY AREAS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. BASED ON RAW TEMPERATURE TOOLS, NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES ARE FAVORED EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST ON DAYS 8 AND 9 (APR 8-9), BEFORE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE WITH THE WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT. GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS), WHICH INDICATE 30-50% CHANCES FOR DAILY
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE AND BELOW 40 DEGREES F.
WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT EXCEED TYPICAL WINTERTIME HAZARD CRITERIA, SUCH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE A SHOCK FOLLOWING A VERY WARM MARCH IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES, AND HAVE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO EMERGING SPRINGTIME VEGETATION ACROSS
MANY PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THEREFORE, A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW
TEMPERATURES IS ISSUED FOR APR 8-9, WITH A BROADER SLIGHT RISK AREA OF MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE VALID THROUGH APR 10. WHILE PETS ARE MUTED WITH ANY
WIND SIGNALS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI, THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY
FAVORED IN THE PERIOD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY LEAD TO EPISODES OF HIGH
WINDS IN SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE THERE REMAINS DRY FUELS FOR WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
LATER IN WEEK-2, THERE ARE SUBTLE INDICATIONS IN THE ENSEMBLES OF A RELOADING
MEAN TROUGH BY DAYS 11 AND 12, BRINGING A RENEWED RISK OF HAZARDOUS COLD FOR
THE EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, TOOLS ARE NOT YET SUPPORTIVE TO INCLUDE ANY
ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE HAZARDS, BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN UPCOMING OUTLOOKS.
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, UNSEASONABLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST COMPARED TO
WEEK-1, RESULTING IN NO WEATHER RELATED HAZARDS POSTED WEST OF THE ROCKIES FOR
WEEK-2. ANY ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW TO PROMOTE ABOVE-NORMAL AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WOULD MOST LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA OVER WESTERN CANADA AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
PETS WHICH DEPICT INCREASED CHANCES FOR 3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING
THE 85TH PERCENTILE. HOWEVER, ACTUAL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED HAZARD
CRITERIA, AS ANY RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO TIME OFF IN WEEK-1
WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND MEAN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FAVORED TO EASE EARLY IN WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: NICK NOVELLA
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