692   
FXUS21 KWNC 021749  
PMDTHR  
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EDT APRIL 02 2025  
  
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) IS   
FORECAST TO PEAK IN MAGNITUDE LATE IN WEEK-1 AND WEAKEN AT THE OUTSET OF   
WEEK-2. THIS FEATURE FAVORS AN INCREASED RISK FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL   
TEMPERATURES COINCIDING WITH EMERGING SPRINGTIME VEGETATION LINGERING INTO   
DAY-8 (APR 10). FOLLOWING A BRIEF MODERATION, MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS   
FORECAST TO RELOAD ACROSS THE EAST, POTENTIALLY USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF   
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES, IN ADDITION TO CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE   
NORTHEASTERN U.S, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THESE OUTCOMES.   
UPSTREAM, MEAN MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO KEEP MUCH OF THE WESTERN   
CONUS FREE OF WEATHER RELATED HAZARDS.  
  
HAZARDS  
  
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN   
CONUS, THU, APR 10.  
  
DETAILED SUMMARY  
  
FOR SATURDAY APRIL 05 - WEDNESDAY APRIL 09:   
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
  
FOR THURSDAY APRIL 10 - WEDNESDAY APRIL 16: AMPLIFIED TROUGHING IS FORECAST   
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS LATE IN WEEK-1, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS   
FAVORS A WELCOME DRYING TREND, A PERIOD OF ANOMALOUSLY COLDER TEMPERATURES IS   
FORECAST, WITH SOME AREAS EXPERIENCING FROSTS OR FREEZES COINCIDING WITH   
SUSCEPTIBLE EMERGING SPRINGTIME VEGETATION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE   
FAVORED PRIOR TO THE START OF WEEK-2, WITH MODERATION LIKELY AS THE PERIOD   
BEGINS. HOWEVER, THE ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) CONTINUES TO   
DEPICT PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 20 PERCENT FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING   
BELOW THE 15TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS   
ON DAY-8 (APR 10), WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES (ABOVE 40 PERCENT) ACROSS THE   
SOUTHEAST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY FALLING BELOW 40 DEG F SUPPORT A   
CONTINUATION OF THE SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON DAY-8   
(APR 10) DUE TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF FROST. AN INCREASE IN VEGETATION COVERAGE   
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND LOWER NORTHEAST IS   
POSSIBLE DUE TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST EARLY IN WEEK-1, JUSTIFYING   
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK. AS THE TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS THE EAST,   
THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES   
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE   
PETS ARE MORE SPORADIC AND WEAKER WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES   
COMPARED TO THE PRECEDING EVENT, WITH THE UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDING A RELATED   
ADDITION OF THE HAZARD AT THIS TIME.  
  
BOTH THE 0Z GEFS AND ECENS DEPICT AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING   
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST ON DAYS 9 AND 10 (APR 11-12) AHEAD OF THE RELOADING   
TROUGH. THE GEFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,   
AND BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS DEPICT AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE 3-DAY   
PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE ALONG THE   
EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY IN WEEK-2. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION   
TOTALS EXCEEDING 1-INCH ONLY EXCEED 20 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF COASTAL NEW   
ENGLAND, INDICATING THE SYSTEM MAY REMAIN TOO FAR OFF THE COAST OR TOO WEAK FOR   
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, AND   
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAZARDS MAY BE NEEDED IN TOMORROW’S OUTLOOK FOR PARTS   
OF THE NORTHEAST DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  
  
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2 FAVORS   
UNSEASONABLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO WEEK-1, RESULTING IN NO   
WEATHER RELATED HAZARDS FOR THE WESTERN CONUS FOR WEEK-2. HOWEVER, AS THE RIDGE   
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH TIME, HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO TREND CLOSER TO   
NORMAL NEAR THE WEST COAST, WITH A GREATER TENDENCY FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO   
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY WEAK WITH THESE FEATURES,   
WITH THE PETS UNIMPRESSIVE WITH HAZARDOUS PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. WHILE   
THE ECENS PET DEPICTS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH   
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 20-MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND   
NORTHERN PLAINS, THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP IS NOT INDICATIVE OF A WIDESPREAD HIGH   
WIND EVENT. THEREFORE NO RELATED WIND HAZARD IS POSTED, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL   
EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE TROUGHING   
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.   
  
NO HAZARDS ARE INDICATED ACROSS ALASKA UNDERNEATH A VARIABLE TEMPERATURE   
PATTERN ALONG WITH NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST DURING WEEK-2.   
  
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW   
  
  
 
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