458
FXUS21 KWNC 041754
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 04 2025
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) EARLY IN WEEK-2, WITH DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICTING AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGING ENHANCED CHANCES OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHWEST. THIS FAVORS INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS, IN PARTICULAR OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY SOILS, MAY INCREASE THE WILDFIRE RISK.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, SAT-SUN, APR
12-13.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS,
SAT-MON, APR 12-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, SAT-SUN, APR 12-13.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY APRIL 07 - FRIDAY APRIL 11:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY APRIL 12 - FRIDAY APRIL 18: MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WAVE OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AT THE
OUTSET OF WEEK-2. THE 0Z GEFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE 0Z ECENS, WITH ANY IMPACTS OCCURRING PRIOR TO THE START OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) INDICATES AT LEAST
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE AND 1-INCH OVER PARTS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND, AND THE DETERMINISTIC
0Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS DEPICT A MORE ROBUST SURFACE LOW WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE
POTENTIAL IS MARGINAL, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSTED FOR
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, APR 12-13.
THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ALL DEPICT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS EARLY IN WEEK-2, WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING SHIFTING FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DESPITE SOME INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW, THE
PETS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE WITH PROBABILITIES FOR HAZARDOUS PRECIPITATION. AN
INCREASED RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS MORE OF A CONCERN, WITH THE PETS DEPICTING
BROAD AREAS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS HAVING PROBABILITIES ABOVE 20
PERCENT FOR WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 20-MPH
(25-MPH OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS). SYNOPTICALLY, THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
WHILE THE PERCENTILE PROBABILITIES IN THE PETS SUPPORT ONLY A SLIGHT RISK OF
HIGH WINDS, A MODERATE RISK IS POSTED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, APR 12-13,
MAINLY BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR HIGHER WIND SPEEDS
IN THE PETS, AND THE ASSOCIATED ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK GIVEN HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F ABOVE-NORMAL ALONG WITH DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS.
A BROAD SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS, APR 12-14. AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CALIFORNIA, WITH THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z ECENS AND GEFS DEPICTING HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING 20-MPH JUST OFFSHORE. DUE TO THE LIKELY
EXTENSION OF HIGHER WINDS ACROSS LOW ELEVATION INLAND AREAS, WILDFIRES ARE
AGAIN A PRIMARY CONCERN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS DRIER AREAS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
NO HAZARDS ARE INDICATED ACROSS ALASKA UNDERNEATH WEAK TROUGHING, A VARIABLE
TEMPERATURE PATTERN, AND INCREASED NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FAVORED ACROSS THE STATE.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
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