035   
FXUS21 KWNC 251847  
PMDTHR  
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EDT APRIL 25 2025  
  
SYNOPSIS: AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2 SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM   
NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS   
THE EAST-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS   
FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY, WHICH FAVORS ENHANCED CHANCES OF HEAVY   
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS   
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF WEEK-2. BROAD MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO   
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS LATER IN WEEK-2, FAVORING INCREASED CHANCES FOR   
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MANY AREAS.  
  
HAZARDS  
  
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, SAT-WED,   
MAY 3-7.  
  
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL   
PLAINS, SAT-FRI, MAY 3-9.  
  
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
  
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  
  
DETAILED SUMMARY  
  
FOR MONDAY APRIL 28 - FRIDAY MAY 02:   
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
  
FOR SATURDAY MAY 03 - FRIDAY MAY 09: AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, AS SURFACE LOW   
PRESSURE DEPARTS NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC, AN ASSOCIATED   
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS AND   
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED INCREASED CHANCES OF   
LOCALIZED ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE   
STALLS, THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED OVER PORTIONS OF THE   
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS   
POSTED FOR MAY 3-9. THE GEFS AND ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS)   
INDICATE AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH   
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 1-INCH ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA. A   
MODERATE RISK (40-60% CHANCE) IS INTRODUCED TODAY OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND   
TEXAS FROM MAY 3-7, PRIMARILY BASED ON HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE ECENS PET,   
GOOD MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY IN ECENS PRECIPITATION FORECASTS, AND THE 12Z GEFS   
SHOWING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS.  
  
A POSSIBLE FLOODING HAZARD REMAINS POSTED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER   
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW AND RENEWED RISES IN WATER LEVELS DURING WEEK-2   
TIED TO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY   
FRONT, AS WELL AS RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL UPSTREAM. MAIN CHANNELS ARE ALREADY VERY   
HIGH, AND THUS ARE UNLIKELY TO HAVE LARGE RESPONSES TO ADDITIONAL   
PRECIPITATION. REGARDLESS, TRIBUTARIES AND STREAMS ACROSS THIS REGION   
(INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS) WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RENEWED   
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING IF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OCCURS. A RISK OF POSSIBLE   
FLOODING IS INTRODUCED FOR NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK,   
WHERE THERE ARE THE MOST VULNERABLE TOP SOILS TO FLOODING WHERE THERE IS A   
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION HIGHLIGHTED DURING THE PERIOD. LATE SPRING   
IS THE PEAK TIME FOR FLASH FLOODING IN TEXAS, DUE IN PART TO SLOW-MOVING   
THUNDERSTORMS.  
  
THOUGH NO WIND HAZARDS ARE POSTED TODAY, ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS THE SOUTHWEST,   
IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL, SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. TYPICALLY DURING THE SPRING,   
AS THE DESERTS HEAT UP, STRONGER WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF APPROACHING   
MID-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN VERY GUSTY WINDS   
THAT OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE ECENS AND GEFS PETS DEPICT   
WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 20 MPH IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH MAY BE   
UNDERDONE GIVEN THE INHERENT NATURE OF ENSEMBLE SMOOTHING AND CHALLENGES OF   
WIND PREDICTABILITY.  
  
A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST EARLY IN WEEK-2 FAVORS A REDUCTION   
IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE   
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50’S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES TO AROUND 80 DEGREES   
F NEAR THE NATION’S CAPITAL. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) DOES NOT SHOW   
ANY WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE OVER THE   
CONUS DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2. A GENERAL TREND TOWARD MORE   
BROAD RIDGING AND A PATTERN TYPICAL OF LATE-SPRING IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER   
MUCH OF THE CONUS LATER IN WEEK-2.  
  
TROUGHING FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES FOR INCREASED ONSHORE   
FLOW AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE,   
THOUGH FORECASTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES FALL SHORT OF HAZARDS   
THRESHOLDS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREDICTED OVER MANY AREAS MAY FAVOR A   
SLIGHT DELAY IN SEASONAL RIVER ICE BREAKUP. HOWEVER, AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE   
TO WARM, THE EVENTUAL RIVER ICE BREAKUP MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMS AND ASSOCIATED   
UPSTREAM FLOODING IN THE COMING WEEKS.  
  
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA   
  
  
 
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