260
FXUS21 KWNC 281809
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 28 2025
SYNOPSIS: AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2,
SUPPORTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). THIS
PATTERN COMBINED WITH ANTICIPATED ENHANCED MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF INCREASES
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.
THIS PATTERN MAY ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, TUE-WED, MAY 6-7.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, LOUISIANA, ARKANSAS, AND MISSOURI, TUE-WED, MAY 6-7.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
TUE-WED, MAY 6-7.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY MAY 01 - MONDAY MAY 05:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY MAY 06 - MONDAY MAY 12: MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
TODAY, FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FROM
THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS SURFACE
LOW FORMATION OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF, INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS
PRECIPITATION, FLOODING, AND WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, MAY 6-7 WHERE THE ECENS (GEFS) PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL
(PET) SHOWS AT LEAST A 40% (30%) CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS (MAY 6 TO 8)
EXCEEDING ONE INCH. THE VALID PERIOD IS BASED ON WHERE THE UNCALIBRATED
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A SYNOPTIC PATTERN MOST CONDUCIVE TO IMPACTFUL
PRECIPITATION AND ACCOMPANYING HEAVIER TOTALS. THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS SHOWS
GREATER THAN 40% CHANCES OF 3-DAY ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA. A BROADER AREA OF A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS A SLIGHTLY BROADER REGION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER VALLEY FOR THE SAME PERIOD. PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 14 DAYS WHICH HAS LED TO
SATURATED SOILS. SATURATED CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE WEEK-1 PERIOD (INDICATED IN THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK)
AND WEEK-2 INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR CONTINUED OR EXACERBATED FLOOD CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. A RISK OF POSSIBLE FLOOD IS EXPANDED IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK
COMPARED TO LAST FRIDAY’S, TO INCLUDE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR A
TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, DECREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH, AMPLIFIED RIDGING IS
PREDICTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WITH THE GREATEST POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES INDICATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS INCREASED CHANCES FOR ANOMALOUS WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ANTICIPATED TO EXCEED 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
ACROSS THIS REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 AND MODERATING BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH OR EXCEED 85 DEG F BUT DO NOT REACH
HAZARDOUS CRITERIA THUS PRECLUDING AN EXCESSIVE HEAT HAZARD FROM BEING ISSUED
AT THIS TIME.
WEAK TROUGHING IS PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW 500 HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES FAVORING A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE STATE. NO HAZARDS ARE DESIGNATED FOR ALASKA.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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