292
FXUS21 KWNC 291820
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 29 2025
SYNOPSIS: AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE END OF WEEK-1, AND IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN BY THE ONSET OF WEEK-2. THIS TRANSLATES TO INCREASED RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) THAT IS
PREDICTED TO LINGER INTO WEEK-2 (MAY 7-8), WITH DECREASING LIKELIHOOD BY THE
MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. THE SPATIAL COVERAGE HAS BEEN REDUCED FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND IS CONTINUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WED, MAY 7.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WED-THU, MAY 7-8.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY MAY 02 - TUESDAY MAY 06:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY MAY 07 - TUESDAY MAY 13: MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
TODAY, FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT
THE END OF WEEK-1 WEAKENING BY THE ONSET OF WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A
LINGERING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH TRAILING ASSOCIATED FRONTS,
WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF, CONTINUES
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR HAZARDOUS PRECIPITATION AND FLOODING ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS EARLY IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
THE AREAS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
SLIGHTLY DECREASED IN SPATIAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A MODERATE RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS CONTINUED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR MAY 7, PRIMARILY BASED ON WHERE THE ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET)
SHOWS AT LEAST A 40% CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS (MAY 7-9) EXCEEDING THE
85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND ONE INCH, AND WHERE THE DAILY UNCALIBRATED
ECENS SHOWS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF DAILY TOTALS EXCEEDING ONE INCH. THE GEFS
MEAN FAVORS A MUCH QUICKER WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH RESULTING IN WEAKER SIGNALS
FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION. A BROADER AREA OF A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MAY 7-8, WHERE THE GEFS
AND ECENS PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING ONE INCH. PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
14 DAYS WHICH HAS LED TO SATURATED SOILS. SATURATED CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEK-1 PERIOD (INDICATED IN THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK) AND WEEK-2 INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR CONTINUED OR
EXACERBATED FLOOD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED HEAVY PRECIPITATION RISK AREAS. THE AREA
DESIGNATED WITH A RISK OF POSSIBLE FLOOD IS DECREASED IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY TO INCLUDE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS, DECREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDS BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE PERIOD.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH, AMPLIFIED RIDGING IS
PREDICTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WITH THE GREATEST POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES INDICATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS INCREASED CHANCES FOR ANOMALOUS WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA.
WEAK TROUGHING IS PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW 500-HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES FAVORING A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE STATE. NO HAZARDS ARE DESIGNATED FOR ALASKA.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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