059
FXUS21 KWNC 301727
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 30 2025
SYNOPSIS: AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE END OF WEEK-1 WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN BY THE START OF WEEK-2. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA. CHANCES FOR ASSOCIATED WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ALSO ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE, THUS NO FLOOD HAZARDS ARE DESIGNATED
TODAY. A FAIRLY WEAK MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAIRLY
TRANQUIL PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDS.
HAZARDS
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SATURDAY MAY 03 - WEDNESDAY MAY 07:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR THURSDAY MAY 08 - WEDNESDAY MAY 14: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT
THE END OF WEEK-1 BY THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THIS TRANSLATES TO DECREASING
SIGNALS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED
TOOLS. THE 0Z ECENS MEAN CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, WHEREAS THE GEFS AND CMCE DEPICT A MUCH WEAKER FEATURE.
THE ECENS SOLUTION WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, PRIMARILY ON DAY 8 (MAY 8). DUE TO
THE ECENS DAILY ENSEMBLE MEAN AND UNCALIBRATED PROBABILITIES INDICATING DAILY
TOTALS NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL, NO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
HAZARDS ARE DESIGNATED FOR TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE POSSIBLE FLOOD HAZARD IS
ALSO REMOVED IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK GIVEN DECREASING CHANCES FOR ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER, REMAIN A POSSIBILITY IN THIS
REGION THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A STATIONARY FRONT MAY SET
UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN WEEK-2 THAT MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS DO NOT
REACH HAZARDS CRITERIA FOR THIS AREA EITHER.
A TRANSITION TO BROAD RIDGING IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2,
RESULTING IN A FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN, RESULTING IN NO HAZARDS BEING
DESIGNATED. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MULTI-MODEL DEPICTION OF POSITIVE ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN THIS REGION, ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO EXCEED 90 DEG F, THUS NO ASSOCIATED
EXCESSIVE HEAT HAZARD IS DESIGNATED.
WEAK TROUGHING IS PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW 500 HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES FAVORING A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE STATE. NO HAZARDS ARE DESIGNATED FOR ALASKA.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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