926
FXUS21 KWNC 011801
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 01 2025
SYNOPSIS: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, FAVORING ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER FROM A HAZARDS PERSPECTIVE. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A FAIRLY WET PATTERN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND FOUR CORNERS TIED TO A WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA.
HAZARDS
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY MAY 04 - THURSDAY MAY 08:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY MAY 09 - THURSDAY MAY 15: ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE ECENS, GEFS, AND
CMCE ALL INDICATE PERSISTENT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ALONG THE
U.S.-CANADA BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS DOES FAVOR ANOMALOUSLY
WARM TEMPERATURES, AND THE GEFS AND ECMWF PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS)
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED THE 85TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN WEEK-2,
BUT ABSOLUTE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS SO NO
ASSOCIATED HAZARD IS POSTED.
AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2 A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS DEPICTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S., ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAVORED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PATTERN PARTICULARLY AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION TOTALS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS.
WITH ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION BRINGS THE POTENTIAL
FOR NEW AND RENEWED RISES IN RIVER LEVELS IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY
RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING. NO FLOOD HAZARD IS POSTED AT THIS
TIME, BUT THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page