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FXUS21 KWNC 021806
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 02 2025
SYNOPSIS: EARLY IN WEEK-2, A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHEAST. FOLLOWING A
VERY WET APRIL AND BEGINNING OF MAY, A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS FROM MAY 10-13. HOWEVER, LATER IN
WEEK-2 (MAY 14-16), A STORMY PATTERN MAY RETURN. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS ALONG
WITH THE CORN BELT.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, SAT-MON, MAY
10-12.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY MAY 05 - FRIDAY MAY 09:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY MAY 10 - FRIDAY MAY 16: DURING EARLY TO MID-MAY, MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT THAT A BLOCKY PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES. TO
THE SOUTH OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS), A 500-HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE WEEK-1 TO EARLY WEEK-2. ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS
FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CMC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AND FAVOR
MULTIPLE DAYS WITH AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THIS REGION.
BASED ON THE 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THESE ENSEMBLE MEANS, A SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION (20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORE THAN 1 INCH) IS
POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM MAY 10 TO 12. ANY SLOW-MOVING OR
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODING RISK. THIS WETTER PATTERN WOULD ALLEVIATE
SHORT-TERM DRYNESS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, SOUTH GEORGIA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE,
AND CAROLINAS WHERE 30-DAY DEFICITS EXCEED 2 INCHES.
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A 500-HPA TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND
INTO THE WEST TOWARDS THE END OF WEEK-2, MAY 16. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, THERE
WOULD BE A RENEWED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS. IN ADDITION, MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE COMMON BY MID-MAY. NO PRECIPITATION HAZARDS ARE
POSTED FOR THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THIS TIME BUT THE EVOLVING PATTERN WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE, CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, STRONGLY
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE
ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL DEPICTS THAT THERE IS MORE THAN A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS, NO HEAT HAZARDS ARE POSTED WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 90 DEGREES F.
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE FEATURE A WEAK 500-HPA TROUGH PERSISTING OVER ALASKA
THROUGH MID-MAY. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH ALOFT WOULD PROMOTE PERIODS OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES, NO HAZARDOUS PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THIS MONTH, RIVER ICE BREAKUP WILL CONTINUE WHICH COULD LEAD
TO ICE JAMS AND FLOODING.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
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