606
FXUS21 KWNC 191801
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 19 2025
SYNOPSIS: THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST AT THE ONSET OF WEEK-2 BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND MIDDLE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHICH COULD PROLONG FLOODING CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REACHING HAZARDOUS
CRITERIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, WHICH COULD SUPPORT EPISODIC HIGH WINDS.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST, TUE-FRI,
MAY 27-30.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY MAY 22 - MONDAY MAY 26:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY MAY 27 - MONDAY JUNE 02: SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK’S MODEL GUIDANCE,
PREDICTED THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COMBINED WITH ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST.
THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA, MAY 27-30. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GEFS AND ECENS
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) INDICATING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND
SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 25 MPH ACROSS THIS REGION FOR MAY
27-29, WITH UNCALIBRATED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LINGERING HIGH WINDS
EXTENDING INTO THE 30TH.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY
LINGER FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE ONSET OF WEEK-2, BRINGING ENHANCED
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE, AN ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAZARD IS NOT
DESIGNATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, ANY ENHANCED RAINFALL DURING WEEK-2 COULD
PROLONG CONCERNS FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SATURATED SOILS ARE
EXPECTED DURING WEEK-1.
ADDITIONALLY, AN ANTICIPATED SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT IS PREDICTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THE END OF WEEK-1 WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
WEEK-2. THESE FEATURES COULD BRING ENHANCED RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC AT THE ONSET OF WEEK-2. HOWEVER, THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO DESIGNATE AN ASSOCIATED HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAZARD.
MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE SURFACE LOW FORMATION OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHICH
COULD BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND, BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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