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FXUS21 KWNC 201744
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 20 2025
SYNOPSIS: THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ACROSS MULTIPLE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
TODAY’S GUIDANCE. THE ECENS AND CMCE FAVORS BROAD AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND MID-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST, WHEREAS THE GEFS INDICATES A LESS AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WITH MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE COASTS. THIS TRANSLATES TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDS. THE ONLY HIGHLIGHTED HAZARD IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC
HIGH WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WED-FRI,
MAY 28-30.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY MAY 23 - TUESDAY MAY 27:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY MAY 28 - TUESDAY JUNE 03: SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S MODEL GUIDANCE,
PREDICTED THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COMBINED WITH ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST.
THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA, MAY 28-30. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLES INDICATING AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE
85TH PERCENTILE AND 25 MPH ACROSS THIS REGION FOR THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK PERIOD.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MAY BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING WEEK-2. MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE DECREASED SIGNALS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING TO ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. DESPITE NO ASSOCIATED HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAZARDS BEING
DESIGNATED IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK, ANY ENHANCED RAINFALL DURING WEEK-2 COULD
PROLONG CONCERNS FOR POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SATURATED
SOILS ARE EXPECTED DURING WEEK-1.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) INDICATES A 20% CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION
SOUTH OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS OF 5AM PDT. THIS DISTURBANCE COMBINED
WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE TO
PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO REACH HEAVY PRECIPITATION CRITERIA.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS PREDICTED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE MAINLAND OF ALASKA
DURING WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN FAVORS ODDS TILTED TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NO HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME FOR ALASKA.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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