895
FXUS21 KWNC 261759
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS: A TROPICAL OR HYBRID LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ALONG WITH A WEAK 500-HPA
TROUGH, COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA EARLY
WEEK-2. THERE ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, BUT A FEW INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AROUND
MIDWEEK. NO OTHER HAZARDS ARE POSTED DUE TO INCONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT
THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW OTHER NOTEWORTHY OCCURRENCES THAT COULD
APPROACH HAZARDS THRESHOLDS. BRIEF EPISODES OF VERY WARM WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS NEAR A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION,
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE SPOTTY, AND TIMING UNCERTAIN.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, TUE-THU, JUN 3-5, 2025.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY MAY 29 - MONDAY JUNE 02:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY JUNE 03 - MONDAY JUNE 09: THE ONLY HAZARD POSTED TODAY IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS OF THE PERIOD, JUN 3-5. A PREPONDERANCE OF THE TOOLS
INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL OR HYBRID STORM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK
500-HPA TROUGH, POTENTIALLY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION. THE OPERATIONAL
EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS ARE THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE EUROPEAN
SHOWS 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING OVER A 3-DAY PERIOD, AND THE GFS IS NOT FAR
BEHIND WITH 2 TO OVER 5 INCHES. THE OPERATIONAL CANADIAN MODEL KEEPS THE SYSTEM
FARTHER WEST, AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE WESTERN TIER
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS MINORITY SOLUTION IS NOT THE FAVORED SCENARIO AT
THIS TIME. MEANWHILE, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THEIR DERIVED TOOLS ARE NOT AS
ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATION. EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE AND GEFS MEANS SHOW ONLY 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN FALLING ON THE REGION, WITH A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS KEEPING RAINFALL TOTALS UNREMARKABLE. SUCH UNCERTAINTY IS INHERENT WHEN
FORECASTING A TROPICAL OR HYBRID SYSTEM IN A WEAK 500-HPA FIELD. THE
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) FROM THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE SHOWS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED THE 85TH PERCENTILE WHILE THE
PETS DERIVED FROM THE GEFS AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE KEEP THE ODDS CLOSER TO 20
PERCENT. THE EUROPEAN-BASED PET DEPICTS A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL TOP AN INCH FOR THE 3-DAY PERIOD, AND A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR OVER 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN. THE GEFS PET PAINTS A 30 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THIS AREA, AND THE CANADIAN-BASED
PET IS RIGHT AROUND 30 PERCENT. GIVEN THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES, NOTHING
BEYOND A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS JUSTIFIED.
ALTHOUGH NO OTHER HAZARDS ARE POSTED, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW OTHER
NOTEWORTHY OCCURRENCES THAT COULD APPROACH HAZARDS THRESHOLDS. PATCHES OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE GREAT PLAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS
NORTHERN TEXAS, THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE ADJACENT GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOST TOOLS INDICATE A FEW CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION DURING
THE WEEK OVER THIS BROAD AREA, BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO POST AN
ASSOCIATED HAZARD AT THIS TIME. THIS BROAD SWATH OF THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES (CONUS) COULD SEE A FEW AREAS RECEIVE DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES, BUT COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED, AND THERE IS LITTLE
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REGARDING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MIGHT DEVELOP. ALSO, THE PETS ARE ALL RELATIVELY
UNREMARKABLE, KEEPING THE ODDS FOR 3-DAY TOTALS ABOVE THE 85TH PERCENTILE TO AT
BEST 30 PERCENT, WITH NO CONSENSUS REGARDING LOCATIONS AND TIMING. FOR
INSTANCE, SOME DYNAMICAL MODELS BRING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS EARLY WEEK-2, BUT NONE OF THE PETS BRING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
85TH-PERCENTILE PRECIPITATION THIS FAR NORTH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS
PRECLUDES POSTING ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAZARD IN THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A FEW SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF VERY WARM WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2, ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE REGION, AND THIS FEATURE MAY WEAKLY BUILD BACK WESTWARD
LATER IN THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN IS THE MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING
TEMPERATURES AND/OR HEAT INDEXES APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA, SHOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OR TWO WITH HEAT INDEXES IN THE MIDDLE TO HIGH 90’S FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN IOWA AND PORTIONS OF MISSOURI, ABOUT A DAY
WITH SIMILAR HEAT INDEXES IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW YORK
CITY, AND A FEW DAYS WITH HEAT INDEXES APPROACHING 100 DEG. F OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION; HOWEVER, OTHER TOOLS SHOW AN ARRAY OF
SOLUTIONS AS TO WHERE AND WHEN ANY HEAT RISK WILL BE GREATEST, AND MOST TOOLS
ARE NOT AS WARM AS THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN IN ANY CASE. AGAIN, THE COMBINATION
OF THESE FACTORS PRECLUDES POSTING ANY HEAT HAZARDS.
A RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS TO
TRAVERSE ALASKA, WITH 500-HPA HEIGHTS REMAINING NEAR OR MARGINALLY BELOW
NORMAL. LATER IN THE WEEK, SLIGHTLY INCREASING HEIGHTS FOLLOWING THE SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TROUGH, BUT SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE A RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH REDEVELOPING OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE MAINLAND. IN ANY CASE, A WEAK
500-HPA HEIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD PREVAIL STATEWIDE THROUGHOUT WEEK-2. THIS SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTREME WEATHER, THUS NO HAZARDS ARE POSTED ANYWHERE IN THE STATE.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
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