041
FXUS21 KWNC 281958
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS: DYNAMICAL MODELS AGAIN FAVOR A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) EARLY WEEK-2. MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE EAST FAVORS SHARPLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO CURRENT CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR EPISODES OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
FRONT. MOST TOOLS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO EARLY WEEK-2, BUT ROUNDS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION MAY RECUR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. ENHANCED WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES, SOUTHWEST,
AND HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, MODELS ARE DRIER TODAY FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY WEEK-2, SO THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN REMOVED.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, THU, JUN 5, 2025.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS FROM THE RED
RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD, THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THU-MON, JUN 5-9,
2025.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS, AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, THU-FRI, JUN 5-6, 2025.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND HIGH PLAINS, THU-FRI, JUN 5-6, 2025.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SATURDAY MAY 31 - WEDNESDAY JUNE 04:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR THURSDAY JUNE 05 - WEDNESDAY JUNE 11: TODAY’S MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED 500-HPA PATTERN EARLY IN WEEK-2, CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY’S
MODEL TRENDS. BUT THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT ON ANYTHING MORE SPECIFIC REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION, TIMING, MAGNITUDE, AND LOCATION OF SPECIFIC FEATURES. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS PLACE A WEAK (CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN)
TO MODERATELY STRONG (GEFS AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEANS) MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN OR
NEAR ROCKIES AND INTERIOR WEST. DOWNSTREAM, MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD COVER THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) WITH
THE GREATEST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEAST, OHIO VALLEY, AND/OR
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE, HOWEVER, IS UNCERTAIN, WITH THE
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING A STRONGER SOLUTION THAN YESTERDAY WHILE THE
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS WEAKER TODAY. THE WESTERN TROUGH WEAKENS FAIRLY
QUICKLY, MOSTLY DISSIPATING AS IT TRAVELS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ENSUING COUPLE
OF DAYS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS TIME MOVES ON, AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PLACE A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES (> +60 M) COVERING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN CANADA.
UPSTREAM, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN SHOWING ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE OTHER
ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVORING A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THIS REGION, WITH NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT NORTH AMERICA
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC FEATURES RELATIVELY WEAK
FEATURES IN ALL THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE DYNAMIC MODELS MAINTAIN MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERNS LATE WEEK-2, THOUGH INCONSISTENCIES OF PLACEMENT AND TIMING REMAIN.
THIS IMPLIES THAT AT THE END OF WEEK-2, THE PATTERN MAY NOT HAVE DEAMPLIFIED AS
MUCH AS ANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE, AND THAT THE FLAT MID-LEVEL
PATTERNS ARE MORE THE RESULT OF HIGHLY VARIABLE SOLUTIONS FROM THE INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLES, NOT FROM BROAD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEMBERS THAT THE
PATTERN WILL RELAX.
FARTHER NORTHWEST, MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT OVER AND NEAR ALASKA
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN PLACES A MUCH DEEPER
MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE STATE, WITH THE LARGEST ANOMALIES AND A CLOSED
500-HPA CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN PLACES THIS TROUGH FARTHER WEST, WITH A LOWER MAGNITUDE. THE GEFS
IS WEAKER STILL, KEEPING AN OPEN WAVE WITH A BROAD AREA OF RELATIVELY SMALL
500-HPA ANOMALIES. AS WEEK-2 GOES ON, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN
BUT HINT AT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING GETTING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE STATE
LATE IN THE PERIOD. IF THE STRONG EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN VERIFIES THAT WOULD
BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD EXACERBATE
THE MUCH WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION OF LATE, WITH KETCHIKAN
LIKELY TO SET A MAY RECORD FOR TOTAL PRECIPITATION AND JUNEAU REPORTING THE
MOST MAY DAYS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION, HOWEVER,
IS AN OUTLIER AND A MORE MODERATE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED, WHICH WOULD FAVOR
LOWER PRECIPITATION TOTALS. NO HAZARDS ARE POSTED IN ANY PART OF THE STATE AT
THIS TIME.
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN LEAD TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IN THE CENTRAL CONUS, HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED EARLY IN THE PERIOD BY MANY (NOT ALL) INDICATORS, WITH
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE TOOLS PLACING THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE OPERATIONAL DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THEIR DERIVED PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS). THE LATTER FAVOR HEAVIER RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH,
AND ALL SHOW LOW ODDS FOR 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO EXCEED 1.5 INCHES. THE
OPERATIONAL CANADIAN, GFS, AND EUROPEAN MODELS ALL BRING MUCH HEAVIER RAIN INTO
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS, WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT IN THEIR FORECASTS OF THE
LOCATIONS, EXTENT, AND AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WILL FALL. A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE GREAT PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WHEN MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION AND AMPLITUDE OF MID-LEVEL FEATURES, AND ALL TEND TO
PLACE HEAVY AMOUNTS IN AT LEAST PART OF THIS GENERAL AREA. SIMILARLY HEAVY
TOTALS ARE FORECAST FOR OTHER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL, BUT THERE IS
VERY POOR AGREEMENT ON WHERE AND WHEN THIS MIGHT HAPPEN. THE OPERATIONAL
DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW EPISODES OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, BUT WITH LITTLE
MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING WHERE AND WHEN HEAVY RAINS
MIGHT OCCUR, ONLY A BROAD SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION CAN BE JUSTIFIED
FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD, INCLUDING ADJACENT LOCATIONS IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LATE IN WEEK-2, UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES TO THE POINT WHERE NO HAZARD POSTING IS SUPPORTED.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
EARLY WEEK-2, WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR A LARGE PART OF
THE EAST, WITH THE PETS ALL PLACING THE BEST CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE EASTERN CONUS,
ALTHOUGH THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES TRANSLATE INTO DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE PETS
REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE PETS
GENERALLY AGREE, HOWEVER, THAT THERE ARE ENHANCED CHANCES (20 TO OVER 40
PERCENT) OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE FROM THE OHIO RIVER INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD, ALONG
WITH ENHANCED CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90 DEG. F, AND MAYBE EVEN
HIGHER HEAT INDEXES. OTHER TOOLS SHOW CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN THIS REGION, BUT
THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE TOOLS SHOW INCREASED ODDS FOR VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER
THERE. OTHER AREAS FARTHER NORTH HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING
THE 85TH PERCENTILE, BUT ACTUAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT POSTING A HAZARD. THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IS UNCHANGED FROM
YESTERDAY, ENDING AFTER THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD. LATER IN THE PERIOD,
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW HOTTER WEATHER
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, BUT THE TOOLS
ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT ON LOCATIONS, COVERAGE, TIMING, AND INTENSITY OF ANY
HEAT THAT DEVELOPS. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, BUT CURRENTLY
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO POST ANY HAZARD FOR EXTREME HEAT LATER IN
WEEK-2.
EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEEK-2 NEAR THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST, EASTWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. PETS DERIVED
FROM THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING
ENHANCED CHANCES (AT LEAST 20 PERCENT) OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH, SUPPORTING A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THIS BROAD AREA. ANY HIGH WINDS MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE RISK,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS WHERE SOIL MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY BELOW THE 30TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE. THE HIGH WIND THREAT ERODES
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AFTER THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF WEEK-2.
TODAY’S TOOLS SHOW A SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PUSH
INTO FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION EARLY WEEK-2, SO THE SLIGHT RISK
FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION THERE HAS BEEN REMOVED. HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAY INTRUDE
ON SOUTH FLORIDA LATER WEEK-2, BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO JUSTIFY
POSTING A HAZARD AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
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