781
FXUS21 KWNC 101800
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JULY 10 2025
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. HOWEVER, ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK, EVEN FOR THE SUMMER MONTHS WHEN MID-LEVEL ANOMALIES ARE
GENERALLY REDUCED. THUS, DESPITE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THE RISK FOR EXTREME
HEAT ACROSS THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2 IS FAIRLY LOW. THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST, SOUTHEAST,
AND MID-ATLANTIC, FRI-TUE, JUL 18-22.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGH
SOUTHERN PLAINS, FRI-SAT, JUL 18-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
SUN-THU, JUL 20-24.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY JULY 13 - THURSDAY JULY 17:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY JULY 18 - THURSDAY JULY 24: A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, AND GULF COAST THAT IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE INCREASED CHANCES FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE
REGIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR JUL 18-22 FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST AND GULF
COAST. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS INDICATE
20-30% CHANCES FOR 3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 1 INCH ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION. TROPICAL
MOISTURE MAY INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCREASING THE AVAILABLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE RAW ENSEMBLE STANDARDIZED
PRECIPITATABLE WATER ANOMALIES (PWATS) BEING SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND THIS CAN SOMETIMES BE SMOOTHED BY THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, THUS LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE HIGHER. MANY OF THE
AREAS IN THE HIGHLIGHTED SLIGHT RISK HAVE SEEN A VERY WET LATE SPRING AND EARLY
SUMMER FURTHER INCREASING THE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
A NOTABLE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. RAINFALL OF 0.75 TO
1.5 INCHES IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED IN THIS REGION, SUPPORTED BY UNCALIBRATED
ECENS PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE AND ITS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET).
FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. CONSEQUENTLY, A SLIGHT RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THIS AREA FROM JULY 18-19. RESIDENTS IN
AREAS AFFECTED BY RECENT WILDFIRES AND THEIR RESULTING BURN SCARS ARE ADVISED
TO BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AND MUDFLOWS.
LATER IN WEEK 2, THE GEFS IS INDICATING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTING TOWARDS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WOULD INTENSIFY
MONSOON ACTIVITY ACROSS ARIZONA. HOWEVER, THE ECENS IS SLOWER TO BUILD THE
RIDGE INTO THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS THE ECENS PET IS QUITE BULLISH ON HEAVY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MEANWHILE, THE GEFS PET IS
RELUCTANT TO BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. WITH MANY CONFLICTING
SIGNALS, HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
WESTERN FOUR CORNERS FOR JUL 20-24. THERE COULD BE CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING
IN AREAS WITH RECENT WILDFIRE ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED BURN SCARS, AS WELL AS IN
SLOT CANYONS AND OTHER FLOOD-PRONE ZONES.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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