768
FXUS21 KWNC 141811
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JULY 14 2025
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES OF EXTREME HEAT TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE IS ALSO AN
ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL HIGH FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND
THE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, TUE-MON, JUL 22-28.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, UPPER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS, TUE-THU, JUL 22-24.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY JULY 17 - MONDAY JULY 21:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY JULY 22 - MONDAY JULY 28: POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD BY THE GEFS, ECENS,
AND CMCE MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS ELEVATES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST TIME OF YEAR FOR MUCH
OF THE COUNTRY. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) AND SHORT-TERM BIAS
CORRECTED APPARENT TEMPERATURE TOOLS INDICATE THAT THERE ARE ELEVATED CHANCES
(>20%) FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES REACHING HAZARDOUS CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT
PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND MISSISSIPPI, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXTREME HEAT IS POSTED FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD
AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE FROM GEFS BASED TOOLS WOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST. HOWEVER, THE ECENS SIGNAL FOR THIS HEAT
POTENTIAL IS NOTICEABLY WEAKER, ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECENS BASED TOOLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO PARTS OF THE WEST.
HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PREDICTING THIS TO OCCUR AROUND
DAY 12 FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE TOOLS CONSISTENTLY SLIPPING DAY BY
DAY. DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY, NO ASSOCIATED HAZARD IS POSTED AT THIS TIME BUT
THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ADDITION OF A HAZARD, IF MODELS CAN
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES THERE ARE SOME
INCREASED SIGNALS FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION. THE ECENS PET HAS
A BROAD AREA INDICATING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY ACCUMULATED
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE. THE GEFS HAS SPOTTIER CHANCES BUT
IS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT. THE ECENS RAW TOOL IS EVEN MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. FINALLY, THE WEEK-2 ANALOG
PRECIPITATION TOOL ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THIS REGION TO SEE ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
DURING WEEK-1. ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IN WEEK-2 WOULD IMPACT AN ALREADY
WET ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AND SURROUNDING AREAS,
JUL 22-24.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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