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FXUS21 KWNC 221828
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JULY 22 2025
SYNOPSIS: THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WEEK-2 HAZARDS FORECAST
TODAY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
ACROSS BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF THE CONUS. AS SUCH, CHANCES FOR EXTREME
HEAT ARE REDUCED AND CONFINED TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY
IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. CHANCES FOR EXTREME HEAT INCREASE FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MUCH OF WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHEAST, AND CAROLINAS, WED-THU, JUL 30-31.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC,
WED-FRI, JUL 30-AUG 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC NORTH INTO THE NEW
YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA, WED, JUL 30.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, SAT-TUE, AUG 2-5.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST, WED-FRI, JUL 30-AUG 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES, WED-TUE, JUL 30-AUG 5.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY JULY 25 - TUESDAY JULY 29:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 30 - TUESDAY AUGUST 05: THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE ALL IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
EARLY IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THIS WILL SHIFT MUCH OF THE EXTREME HEAT RISK
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE EAST EARLY IN WEEK-2 COMPARED TO YESTERDAY’S OUTLOOK.
THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS SHOW 40-60%
CHANCES OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FOR DAYS 8 AND 9. PROBABILITIES FALL
BELOW 30% BY DAY 11 ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION. THEREFORE, A
MODERATE RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IS POSTED FOR JUL 30-31 FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHEAST, AND CAROLINAS. A
BROADER AREA HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES ADDITIONAL AREAS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC FOR JUL 30-AUG 1. TOOLS ALSO INDICATE A BRIEF WARM PERIOD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IS POSTED FOR JUL 30 FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE NEW
YORK METROPOLITAN AREA.
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IS ALSO POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK-2. THE PETS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS DEVELOP A
STRONGER SIGNAL, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 20% FOR TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE, FOR THIS REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
WEEK-2. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN RAW TOOLS HIGHLIGHTING
TEMPERATURES NEARING HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS FOR THE HIGHLIGHTED REGIONS.
THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK IS POSTED FOR AUG 2-5 AS NORMALIZED 500-HPA HEIGHTS
RISE ACROSS THIS REGION.
A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS FOR JUL 30-AUG 1 AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, MANY TOOLS FORECAST THIS FRONT TO STALL AS IT IS
DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MAY BRING REPEATED CHANCES FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. PETS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3 DAY ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING
THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 1 INCH IN THIS AREA.
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS,
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THESE FEATURES ARE INHERENTLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST MORE THAN A
FEW DAYS INTO THE FUTURE, SO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS AT
LEAST A MARGINALLY-INCREASED THREAT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT WEEK-2.
THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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